Expected Value Calculator
Find +EV bets in seconds. Enter your sportsbook's odds and the fair price (or sharp-book odds) — we'll calculate expected value, edge %, and your long-run profit per bet.
What your book offers, e.g. +150
Pinnacle / consensus, e.g. +120
How much you'd bet
What is expected value?
Expected value (EV) is the average profit per bet if you placed the same wager thousands of times. The formula: EV = (true win probability × profit if win) − (loss probability × stake). Positive EV means the book is paying you more than the true odds warrant — over time you make money. Negative EV is a losing proposition.
The hard part is finding the true win probability. Sharp books like Pinnacle, or the consensus across many books, are the best proxy. Our boost analyzer does this automatically for any sportsbook boost.
Worked example — +150 bet at +120 fair
- 1Your sportsbook offers: +150Decimal 2.50 — profit $1.50 per $1 risked
- 2Sharp/fair odds: +120True win prob = 100/(120+100) = 45.45%
- 3EV per $1: 0.4545 × 1.50 − 0.5455 × 1 = +0.136
- 4Edge: +13.6%Unusually large — would normally indicate a stale line
- 5$10 stake EV: +$1.36 per bet, long run
When to use this calculator
- Boost evaluation. Plug in the boosted price and the fair price (from our no-vig calculator) to see if the boost is real edge.
- Line shopping. When two books disagree, compare each price to the sharp consensus to find the +EV side.
- Bonus bet conversion. Plug your sportsbook's price in, then your fair odds, to see the expected dollar value of a free-bet conversion.
- Modeling your own number. If you handicap a game yourself, your projected probability becomes the "fair" input.
Frequently asked questions
What is an expected value (EV) calculator?+
An EV calculator tells you whether a bet is profitable in the long run. Enter your sportsbook's odds, the fair (sharp) odds, and your stake — it returns the edge percentage and the average dollar profit per bet if you placed the same wager many times.
How do you calculate expected value on a bet?+
EV = (true win probability × profit if win) − (loss probability × stake). The true win probability comes from the fair odds (devigged sharp book). Positive EV means the book is paying you more than the true odds; negative EV is a long-run losing bet.
What is a +EV bet?+
A +EV (positive expected value) bet is one where the sportsbook's payout is greater than the true probability warrants. Over hundreds of bets, +EV wagers compound into real profit — even when individual bets lose. It's the foundation of sharp sports betting.
How do I find the true win probability for the calculator?+
The most reliable proxy is the devigged price from a sharp book like Pinnacle or Circa. Run that book's two-sided market through our no-vig calculator — the resulting fair probability is your best estimate of true probability and the input for this EV calculator.
What edge percentage should I look for?+
Above 0% is technically +EV, but 2–5% is a realistic target for retail bettors using devigged sharp prices. 5%+ edges are unusually large and usually disappear quickly — if you find one, take it. Anything above 10% likely indicates a stale line or pricing error.
Is this EV calculator free?+
Yes — completely free, no signup, no limits. Use it as often as you want on any sport, market, or sportsbook. The same math powers our automated bet analyzer.
Does the calculator work for parlays?+
For parlay EV you need the devigged probability of each leg, then multiply them to get the parlay's true probability. Use this calculator on the final combined parlay price vs. fair price, or use our dedicated parlay calculator for leg-by-leg breakdowns.
How is this different from a profit calculator?+
A profit calculator only shows what you'd win if your bet hits. An EV calculator factors in the probability of losing too — it shows what you'll average per bet across wins and losses combined. That's the number sharp bettors actually care about.
Why is my edge so different on +200 vs −200 bets?+
Because payoff and probability scale differently. A 5% edge on a +200 longshot has a much bigger swing per bet than a 5% edge on a −200 favorite. Both are +EV, but bankroll variance is very different — that's why Kelly criterion sizes bets by edge AND odds.
Does EV account for variance and bankroll?+
No — EV is the long-run average. To size bets accounting for variance, use Kelly criterion (or fractional Kelly). A small +EV edge on a high-variance bet should be staked smaller than the same edge on a low-variance bet.