What does a -2.2% edge mean?

A negative edge of -2.2% means the price (+15200) is worse than fair value (+15544). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 0.7% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 0.6%, which converts to fair odds of +15544.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a F-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

World Cup Action Result/Both Teams to Score — F Grade — Long Shot (Fun Only) (42/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

FanDuel

Better Off PassingBalancedF

Price or risk doesn't justify it

World Cup Action Result/Both Teams to Score

Too custom to confirm value across 3 legs. Could win, but the math isn't backing it — entertainment stake at most.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.1u · Lottery

Long shot energy — small stake, big screenshot if it hits.

Your odds

+15200

Fair odds

+15544

Edge

—

Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This is a thrilling longshot parlay with a solid payout!

Market context: The price you're getting is just a little tighter than the mathematically fair price, which is common for multi-leg parlays.
Status: the matchup no notable injury signal for any of the teams involved.
Social: the matchup isn't enough social data to get a read on this bet.
Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay at a very long price, meaning significant multi-leg parlay variance.

Smart insight: the matchup three legs involving the favorite to win and both teams to score are crucial, and any one miss will bust the entire parlay. Similar profile: Longshot 3-leg parlays combining match winners and both teams to score in international soccer are true entertainment plays. Counter-case: The biggest counter-case here is the extremely low probability of all three specific outcomes hitting together. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off for any last-minute surprises. Stake suggestion: the matchup.

How this bet was graded

Grade F · 42/100 · Better Off Passing

World Cup Action Result/Both Teams to Score at +15200 on FanDuel (3 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. F (42/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an F-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.