What does a -2.2% edge mean?

A negative edge of -2.2% means the price (+1987) is worse than fair value (+2034). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 4.8% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 4.7%, which converts to fair odds of +2034.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a F-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

USA To Qualify for the Next Round, Folarin Balogun Anytime Goalscorer Including Extra Time, Christian Pulisic Player To H... — F Grade — Long Shot (Fun Only) (38/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

DraftKings

Better Off PassingBalancedF

Price or risk doesn't justify it

USA To Qualify for the Next Round, Folarin Balogun Anytime Goalscorer Including Extra Time, Christian Pulisic Player To H...

We'd rather tell you "we can't grade this" than fake a number. Pass, or stake it like entertainment.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.1u · Lottery

Long shot energy — small stake, big screenshot if it hits.

Your odds

+1987

Fair odds

+2034

Edge

—

Settle the debate

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This is an ambitious 6-leg parlay focusing on a strong performance from the USA, with a very attractive offered price!

Value: We don't have a comparable market consensus to measure an exact edge, but the offer of +1987 for six distinct outcomes represents a significant price for your speculation.
Market context: With no direct comparable market, the value is in the compounded price lift you get from combining these specific outcomes, which is substantial.
Status: the matchup are no notable injury signals for the players involved.
Social: the matchup isn't enough social data to get a strong read on public sentiment for this specific parlay.
Risk: This is a 6-leg parlay, which inherently carries high multi-leg parlay variance, especially with several specific player props and a half-time result.

Smart insight: Christian the matchup shots on target are often a strong indicator of the matchup offensive pressure, and a key leg in driving the potential for this parlay to hit. Similar profile: This fits the profile of a longshot, multi-leg SGP in soccer, combining team outcomes with individual player performance, which typically trades at very high odds. Counter-case: The biggest challenge here is the sheer number of unique outcomes that all need to fall perfectly, especially with Folarin the matchup anytime goal and Jovo the matchup shots. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off to confirm all expected players are starting.

Stake suggestion: A fun-sized stake is perfect for this one.

How this bet was graded

Grade F · 38/100 · Better Off Passing

USA To Qualify for the Next Round, Folarin Balogun Anytime Goalscorer Including Extra Time, Christian Pulisic Player To H... at +1987 on DraftKings (6 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. F (38/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an F-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.