Longshot — fun stake only
Bet builder this specific has hidden correlation juice baked in. Fun ticket, not an investment.
Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.
Verdict: This Kody Clemens and Byron Buxton to hit 1+ home run parlay at +3300 offers significant edge.
Smart insight: The value of this bet is highly sensitive to the true probability of each player hitting a home run, particularly the unmatched odds for Byron Buxton and Kody Clemens. Similar profile: This aligns with a typical MLB 2-leg same-game parlay for individual player home runs, which often feature longshot prices and can be highly volatile. Counter-case: The primary risk lies in the low individual probabilities of each player hitting a home run, amplified by the parlay structure. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.
Recommendation: Standard
Grade B · 74/100 · Lottery Ticket
Twins Win at +3300 on DraftKings (2 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+21.4%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.
We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.
Yes. B (74/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.
Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an B-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.