Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 33.3% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 45.5%, which converts to fair odds of +120.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a A+-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

TOR Blue Jays First Team to Score (Super Boost) — A+ Grade — Strong +EV Play (86/100)

Q: What does a +36.4% edge mean?

A positive edge of +36.4% means the price (+200) pays more than the fair price (+120). Over many identical bets, that gap is your expected return per dollar staked.

All analyses

AiOddsLab

Bet365

Lottery TicketBalancedA+

Longshot — fun stake only

TOR Blue Jays First Team to Score (Super Boost)

Live edge, fragile signal. Stake small and don't double down if it loses.

Stake idea · Balanced

2u · Loud

Genuine value — comfortable going bigger here.

Your odds

+200

Fair odds

+120

Edge

+36.4%

Price bump+40%Est. true win chance45.5%

Settle the debate

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This is an intriguing single-leg bet with a very compelling price point!

Value: Your offer of +200 gives a significant 36.36% edge over the devigged fair odds of +120, indicating strong value.
Market context: The price lift of 39.5% from the original +115 is excellent for a single-leg play.
Status: the matchup is no notable injury signal for this team at the moment.
Social: the matchup isn't enough social data to form a consensus on this bet.
Risk: This is a single-leg wager, but "First Team to Score" bets naturally have high variance as a single event can swing the outcome.

Smart insight: The value in this bet is almost entirely derived from the generous offer you're getting, making it very sensitive to that price. Similar profile: the matchup team props like "First Team to Score" are often subject to early game randomness, where initial market prices can sometimes offer significant opportunities when a sportsbook makes an aggressive offer. Counter-case: The biggest thing working against this bet is simply the inherent randomness of which team scores first in a baseball game. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.

Stake suggestion: the matchup stake.

How this bet was graded

Grade A+ · 86/100 · Lottery Ticket

TOR Blue Jays First Team to Score (Super Boost) at +200 on Bet365: we devig the available market on the same market to estimate a true win probability of 45.5% — fair odds +120. The gap between +200 and +120 is the +36.36% edge: your long-run expected return per dollar if the market is right about true probability.

Frequently asked questions

What does a +36.4% edge mean?

Across many identical wagers, you'd expect to gain about 36.4 cents on every dollar staked — that's the gap between +200 and the consensus fair price (+120). Single-bet variance still dominates the short run.

Does a positive edge mean this is likely to win?

No. The price still implies roughly a 33.3% chance the ticket cashes. +EV means the payout exceeds the true probability — most positive-EV longshots still lose individually. The edge only shows up across many similar bets.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an A+-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.