What does a +10.9% edge mean?

A positive edge of +10.9% means the price (+286) pays more than the fair price (+248). Over many identical bets, that gap is your expected return per dollar staked.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 25.9% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 28.7%, which converts to fair odds of +248.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a A+-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

Soccer SGP with Both Teams to Score, Over 6 Corners, and Julian Quinones 2+ Shots (30% Profit Boost applied) — A+ Grade — Strong +EV Play (73/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

Bet365

Lottery TicketBalancedA+

Longshot — fun stake only

Soccer SGP with Both Teams to Score, Over 6 Corners, and Julian Quinones 2+ Shots (30% Profit Boost applied)

Too custom to grade against live odds. Treat the stake like a movie ticket.

Stake idea · Balanced

2u · Loud

Genuine value — comfortable going bigger here.

Your odds

+286

Fair odds

+248

Edge

—

Price bump+14%

Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This SGP has a compelling edge against the fair odds, making it an interesting play!

Market context: Your price of +286 is quite attractive, especially when compared to the original price of +240 before the offer was applied.
Status: the matchup no notable injury signal for any player referenced in this SGP.
Social: Reddit doesn't provide significant insight on this specific SGP.
Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay, so multi-leg parlay variance is definitely a factor to consider.

Smart insight: Julian Quinones reaching 2+ shots is a key performance indicator that could move the needle on this bet's EV. Similar profile: Soccer the matchup combining goals, corners, and player props at plus money often benefit significantly from offered prices. Counter-case: The primary challenge here is the inherent variance of a multi-leg parlay. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off. Stake suggestion: fun-sized

How this bet was graded

Grade A+ · 73/100 · Lottery Ticket

Soccer SGP with Both Teams to Score, Over 6 Corners, and Julian Quinones 2+ Shots (30% Profit Boost applied) at +286 on Bet365 (3 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+13.5%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. A+ (73/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an A+-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.