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AiOddsLab
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Verdict: Lottery Ticket. Rating 73 out of 100. Grade A+.
Ai
AiOddsLab
Bet365
Lottery TicketBalancedA+

Fun-stake only — variance is loud

Soccer SGP with Both Teams to Score, Over 6 Corners, and Julian Quinones 2+ Shots (30% Profit Boost applied)

Looks interesting but we can't confirm a price edge. Treat as a small entertainment play, not a serious wager.

Stake idea · Balanced
2u · Loud
Genuine value — comfortable going bigger here.
Your odds
+286
Fair odds
+248
Edge
—
Price bump+14%
Ai

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AI breakdown

Verdict: This SGP has a compelling edge against the fair odds, making it an interesting play!

  • Value: The offered price of +286 provides a solid 10.92% edge over the devigged fair odds of +248.
  • Market context: Your price of +286 is quite attractive, especially when compared to the original price of +240 before the offer was applied.
  • Status: the matchup no notable injury signal for any player referenced in this SGP.
  • Social: Reddit doesn't provide significant insight on this specific SGP.
  • Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay, so multi-leg parlay variance is definitely a factor to consider.

Smart insight: Julian Quinones reaching 2+ shots is a key performance indicator that could move the needle on this bet's EV. Similar profile: Soccer the matchup combining goals, corners, and player props at plus money often benefit significantly from offered prices. Counter-case: The primary challenge here is the inherent variance of a multi-leg parlay. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off. Stake suggestion: fun-sized

How this bet was graded

Grade A+ · 73/100 · Lottery Ticket

We graded Soccer SGP with Both Teams to Score, Over 6 Corners, and Julian Quinones 2+ Shots (30% Profit Boost applied) at +286 on Bet365 — a 3-leg ticket by comparing the offered price to a vig-free consensus of the wider market. The ticket centers on Both Teams to Score, Over 6 Corners, Julian Quinones. The bet earned a A+ grade (73/100), which we label "Lottery Ticket".

The headline number is edge versus fair: +10.92%. That figure is the long-run expected return per dollar staked, assuming the market consensus is an unbiased estimate of true probability. Because we couldn't fully match this market across other books, fair value here was derived from the host book's own posted line — treat the edge as directional rather than precise.

Fair odds calculation

Fair +248 · Implied 28.7%

Fair odds represent the price you'd see in a perfectly efficient, zero-margin market. To compute them we pull current prices from the available sportsbooks on the same market, strip out each book's vig, and average the resulting no-vig probabilities. The averaged probability for this outcome lands at 28.7%, which converts to fair odds of +248.

Compared to the offered price of +286 (a +13.5% move from the original line), that produces an edge of +10.92%. In plain English: if the market is right about the true probability, you'd expect to gain about 10.9 cents on every dollar staked, on average, across many bets of this exact shape.

Historical context

Midrange dogs (+200 to +500) · Soccer · sgp

Across AiOddsLab's database, we've scored 964 graded Soccer bets, average edge of +3.67%, average rating 48/100.

Narrowing to the same market type, 363 graded sgp tickets, average edge of +3.73%, average rating 46/100. This is the closest apples-to-apples reference for the bet you're looking at.

Filtering by odds range alone (midrange dogs (+200 to +500)), 232 graded tickets, average edge of +4.21%, average rating 50/100.

In the trailing 90 days, 964 graded Soccer bets, average edge of +3.67%, average rating 48/100. Compare that to the all-time baseline above to see whether grading and outcomes have drifted recently.

Stats update as new tickets are analyzed and graded. Sample sizes below 5 are suppressed.

Why the market may be wrong

A +10.9% edge implies Bet365 is pricing this outcome more generously than the field. That can happen for a few reasons: the book is using a promotional lift to attract action, the line hasn't caught up to a recent move elsewhere, or it's a low-limit market the sharper books haven't shaped yet. None of these guarantee the bet hits — they only suggest the price is on your side relative to consensus.

Frequently asked questions

What does a +10.9% edge mean?

Edge measures the gap between the price you're getting (+286) and the fair price implied by the broader market (+248). A positive edge of +10.9% means the offered price is paying more than the market thinks the outcome is worth. Over a long run of identical situations, that gap is your expected return per dollar wagered — though variance on any single bet is large.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. Edge and win probability are different things. The market still implies roughly a 25.9% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet is one that pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually. The edge only shows up across many similar wagers.

How are fair odds calculated?

Fair odds are derived by taking sportsbook prices on the same market, removing the bookmaker's vig (the built-in margin), and averaging the resulting no-vig probabilities. For this bet we used the available market price to estimate a true win probability of 28.7%, which converts to fair odds of +248. The offered price of +286 is then compared against that fair line to compute edge.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Sportsbooks usually advertise the percentage lift over their own original price, which they set with house margin built in. Our grade compares the offered price to a vig-free market consensus, so a "+50%" advertised lift can still grade poorly if the original line was already inflated, and a small lift can grade well if it pushes a fair price into +EV territory.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even an A+-grade bet can lose, and you should size stakes within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and consider your own information about the matchup. This tool helps you avoid bad prices — it doesn't replace judgment or responsible bankroll management.