What does a -2.2% edge mean?

A negative edge of -2.2% means the price (+31161) is worse than fair value (+31864). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 0.3% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 0.3%, which converts to fair odds of +31864.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a F-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

Soccer Parlay: Raja Casablanca Athletic HT/FT 1/X and Santa Cruz FC PE CS 3-1 — F Grade — Long Shot (Fun Only) (44/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

Bet365

Better Off PassingBalancedF

Price or risk doesn't justify it

Soccer Parlay: Raja Casablanca Athletic HT/FT 1/X and Santa Cruz FC PE CS 3-1

We'd rather tell you "we can't grade this" than fake a number. Pass, or stake it like entertainment.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.1u · Lottery

Long shot energy — small stake, big screenshot if it hits.

Your odds

+31161

Fair odds

+31864

Edge

—

Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This 2-leg soccer parlay mixes a Half Time/Full Time outcome with a Correct Score, making for an ambitious but exciting longshot.

Value: With no comparable market consensus available, the value of this specific parlay price is best assessed qualitatively based on the difficulty of predicting these exact outcomes.
Market context: The offer of +31161 is a significant payout for combining these two precise soccer predictions.
Status: the matchup is no notable injury signal for the teams involved in these legs.
Social: the matchup isn't enough social media data to draw a conclusion on public sentiment for this bet.
Risk: This is a 2-leg parlay combining two highly specific and difficult-to-predict soccer outcomes, inherently carrying significant multi-leg parlay variance.

Smart insight: The Raja Casablanca Athletic HT/FT 1/X leg, requiring a specific half-time leader and a full-time draw, is likely the most challenging part of this parlay to hit. Similar profile: This is a multi-leg parlay combining highly specific outcomes in soccer, a category known for its high variance and long odds. Counter-case: The extreme specificity of both legs, especially the correct score 3-1 and the 1/X HT/FT, means many scenarios where either team wins or draws differently would bust the parlay. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off for both matches.

Stake suggestion: the matchup stake.

How this bet was graded

Grade F · 44/100 · Better Off Passing

Soccer Parlay: Raja Casablanca Athletic HT/FT 1/X and Santa Cruz FC PE CS 3-1 at +31161 on Bet365 (2 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. F (44/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an F-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.