What does a -5.8% edge mean?

A negative edge of -5.8% means the price (+1600) is worse than fair value (+1705). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 5.9% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 5.5%, which converts to fair odds of +1705.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a F-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

Shoot on Sight: Soccer SGP with player shots on target and both teams to score — F Grade — Long Shot (Fun Only) (47/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

Bet365

Better Off PassingBalancedF

Price or risk doesn't justify it

Shoot on Sight: Soccer SGP with player shots on target and both teams to score

Bet builders price correlation as the book's profit, not yours. Without a fair number to anchor, this is a feel play, not a value one.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.1u · Lottery

Long shot energy — small stake, big screenshot if it hits.

Your odds

+1600

Fair odds

+1705

Edge

—

Price bump+13%

Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

Save as image

Send link

Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This boost offers negative expected value despite the apparent price increase.

Market context: The boosted price of +1600 is worse than the devigged an estimated fair price, indicating no inherent value.
Status: No notable injury signal.
Social: the matchup is insufficient data on Reddit to gauge a social pulse.
Risk: 3-leg parlay variance. With 3 independent conditions required, hit rate compounds quickly and one miss voids the ticket. No verifiable correlation signal from the inputs provided.

Smart insight: The value of this bet is highly sensitive to the true probabilities of Riyad Mahrez and Ali Olwan achieving 2+ Shots on Target. Similar profile: This is a 3-leg SGP combining player shots on target with a game prop (Both Teams to Score), a profile that often struggles against fair odds due to correlation not reflected in pricing. Counter-case: The primary reason to fade is the negative expected value and the significant variance inherent in a longshot multi-leg parlay. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.

Recommendation: Pass.

How this bet was graded

Grade F · 47/100 · Better Off Passing

Shoot on Sight: Soccer SGP with player shots on target and both teams to score at +1600 on Bet365 (3 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+13.3%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. F (47/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an F-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.