We graded Shoot on Sight: Soccer SGP with player shots on target and both teams to score at +1600 on Bet365 — a 3-leg ticket by comparing the offered price to a vig-free consensus of the wider market. The ticket centers on Riyad Mahrez, Ali Olwan, Both Teams to Score. The bet earned a F grade (47/100), which we label "Better Off Passing".

The headline number is edge versus fair: -5.82%. That figure is the long-run expected return per dollar staked, assuming the market consensus is an unbiased estimate of true probability. At odds this long, even a strongly positive edge cashes infrequently — single-bet variance dominates short samples. Because we couldn't fully match this market across other books, fair value here was derived from the host book's pre-boost line — treat the edge as directional rather than precise.

Fair odds represent the price you'd see in a perfectly efficient, zero-margin market. To compute them we pull current prices from the available sportsbooks on the same market, strip out each book's vig, and average the resulting no-vig probabilities. The averaged probability for this outcome lands at 5.5%, which converts to fair odds of +1705.

Compared to the boosted price of +1600 (a +13.3% move from the original line), that produces an edge of -5.82%. In plain English: if the market is right about the true probability, you'd expect to lose about 5.8 cents on every dollar staked, on average, across many bets of this exact shape.

Across AiOddsLab's database, we've scored 781 graded Soccer bets, average edge of +4.80%, average rating 48/100.

Narrowing to the same market type, 325 graded sgp tickets, average edge of +4.23%, average rating 46/100. This is the closest apples-to-apples reference for the bet you're looking at.

Filtering by odds range alone (longshots (+1500 and up)), 203 graded tickets, average edge of +7.39%, average rating 47/100.

In the trailing 90 days, 781 graded Soccer bets, average edge of +4.80%, average rating 48/100. Compare that to the all-time baseline above to see whether grading and outcomes have drifted recently.

Stats update as new tickets are analyzed and graded. Sample sizes below 5 are suppressed.

The wider market is pricing this outcome tighter than Bet365's line suggests is reasonable. With an edge of -5.8%, you're paying a premium versus the consensus fair price of +1705. The bet can still win — odds are not destiny — but the price embeds a built-in disadvantage that compounds across repeated wagers. Shopping the same market at a sharper book, or waiting for the line to move, is usually the correct response.