What does a -2.1% edge mean?

A negative edge of -2.1% means the price (+270) is worse than fair value (+278). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 27.0% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 26.5%, which converts to fair odds of +278.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a B-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

Shohei Ohtani to hit over 0.5 home runs — B Grade — Modest Edge Play (59/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

FanDuel

Better Off PassingBalancedB

Price or risk doesn't justify it

Shohei Ohtani to hit over 0.5 home runs

Worse than consensus. Wait for a line move or take the same side at a sharper book.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.5u · Half

Reasonable spot — half a unit keeps it fun.

Your odds

+270

Fair odds

+278

Edge

-2.1%

Est. true win chance26.5%

Settle the debate

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This Shohei Ohtani home run boost offers no calculable edge given limited information.

Value: the matchup to assess value without original odds or market consensus.
Market context: No comparative odds are available to benchmark the +270 offer.
Status: No notable injury signal.
Social: the matchup public social data to assess.
Risk: This is a single-leg prop, reducing multi-leg parlay variance.

Smart insight: The true value of this bet is entirely dependent on where the fair odds for Ohtani hitting a home run actually sit. Similar profile: the matchup HR prop bets are typically high-variance outcomes, even for elite power hitters. Counter-case: the matchup knowing the original price or market opinion, there's no way to confirm this is a true boost or simply a standard offering. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.

Recommendation: Pass.

How this bet was graded

Grade B · 59/100 · Better Off Passing

Shohei Ohtani to hit over 0.5 home runs at +270 on FanDuel: we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. B (59/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an B-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.