What does a -2.1% edge mean?

A negative edge of -2.1% means the price (+270) is worse than fair value (+278). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 27.0% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 26.5%, which converts to fair odds of +278.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a B-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

Shohei Ohtani - Home Runs Over 0.5 — B Grade — Modest Edge Play (54/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

FanDuel

Better Off PassingBalancedB

Price or risk doesn't justify it

Shohei Ohtani - Home Runs Over 0.5

Worse than consensus. Wait for a line move or take the same side at a sharper book.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.5u · Half

Reasonable spot — half a unit keeps it fun.

Your odds

+270

Fair odds

+278

Edge

-2.1%

Est. true win chance26.5%

Settle the debate

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: A standalone single-leg "Shohei Ohtani to hit a Home the matchup" boost at +270 presents a neutral value with no market comparison.

Value: With unknown original odds and no consensus, the quantitative edge is undefined, indicating neutral value.
Market context: the matchup are no alternative market odds provided for comparison, making a direct market context assessment impossible.
Status: the matchup is no notable injury signal for any player.
Social: the matchup social data available to gauge public sentiment.
Risk: This is a single-leg prop bet, which inherently carries less multi-leg parlay variance but still depends on a specific high-volatility event.

Smart insight: This bet's expected value is extremely sensitive to Shohei the matchup actual probability of hitting a home run, which can fluctuate with pitcher matchups and ballparks. Similar profile: This is a single-leg player prop for a highly impactful but infrequent outcome (home run), often priced with significant variance across books. Counter-case: The lack of any original odds or market consensus makes it impossible to determine if this boosted price represents a true edge or merely a sportsbook offering. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.

Recommendation: Pass

How this bet was graded

Grade B · 54/100 · Better Off Passing

Shohei Ohtani - Home Runs Over 0.5 at +270 on FanDuel: we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. B (54/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an B-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.