What does a +2.9% edge mean?

A positive edge of +2.9% means the price (+504) pays more than the fair price (+487). Over many identical bets, that gap is your expected return per dollar staked.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 16.6% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 17.0%, which converts to fair odds of +487.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a C-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

SGP Same Game Parlay — C Grade — Market-Neutral Bet (40/100)

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AiOddsLab

FanDuel

Better Off PassingBalancedC

Price or risk doesn't justify it

SGP Same Game Parlay

Without a confirmed fair price, the responsible call is patience. Re-check closer to game time when more books post.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.25u · Small

Coin flip on price. Bet it for the action, not the edge.

Your odds

+504

Fair odds

+487

Edge

—

Price bump+24%

Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This SGP offers a slight edge against devigged fair odds, driven by the boost.

Market context: The boost increases the payout significantly from the original +388, making it more appealing than unboosted alternatives.
Status: There is no notable injury signal for any of the players involved.
Social: Insufficient public social data to assess.
Risk: This is a 5-leg parlay, which inherently carries high variance, magnified by multiple player props and a total.
Recommendation: Small.

How this bet was graded

Grade C · 40/100 · Better Off Passing

SGP Same Game Parlay at +504 on FanDuel (5 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+23.8%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. C (40/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an C-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.