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FProbably skip· Sportsbook Special

Same Game Parlay

Grade F · Avoid

Heavily overpriced and/or weak across the board — rating 22/100 with 8.3% off fair. Sportsbook special.

Looks shiny, prices like a tax. The book is the one celebrating this one.

Sportsbook Special Vegas Thanks You
Value
0

Edge vs devigged fair price

Market
44

Compares to best alt book

Historical
43

Similar boosts performance

Safety
28

Higher = lower variance

Social
52

Reddit sentiment (soft)

Ai
AiOddsLabVerdict
Bet365
22/100
PROBABLY SKIPSportsbook Special

Same Game Parlay

"Looks shiny, prices like a tax. The book is the one celebrating this one."

Your Odds
+375
Edge
-8.3%
Price Bump
+10%
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Settle the debate — AiOddsLab graded "Same Game Parlay" (Bet365) 22/100. Looks like a sportsbook special. Would you still tail it? https://aioddslab.com/analyzer/same-game-parlay-ixp02x

The numbers

Boosted odds+375
Original odds+330
Market consensus+330
Devigged fair+418
Implied probability21.1%
Fair probability19.3%
Boost % gained+10.5%
Expected ROI-8.30%
Edge vs fair-8.30%

Market comparison

Per-leg fair odds, then combined.

Partial: 0/3 legs matched
Some legs lacked competitor prices. Edge calculated against the hosting book's original parlay price, not a full multi-book consensus.
SGP correlation markdown · −15%
SGP correlation: 2 overlapping positive legs (same game). Fair probability marked down 15%.
Leg 1unmatched
Jack Leiter: 5+ Pitcher Strikeouts
Leg 2unmatched
Sonny Gray: 5+ Pitcher Strikeouts
Leg 3unmatched
A Run in the 1st Inning - No
Bet365 (boosted)+375
Combined consensus+330
Combined fair (devigged)+418

Legs

  • 1.Jack Leiter: 5+ Pitcher Strikeouts
  • 2.Sonny Gray: 5+ Pitcher Strikeouts
  • 3.A Run in the 1st Inning - No

AI breakdown

Verdict: This boost offers negative expected value.

  • Value: The boosted odds of +375 are significantly lower than the devigged fair odds of +418, indicating a negative edge of -8.30%.
  • Market context: The Bet365 boost at +375 is worse than the consensus fair odds, suggesting it's not a true value play.
  • Status: There is no notable injury signal for Jack Leiter or Sonny Gray.
  • Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay, inherently bringing multi-leg parlay variance.
  • Recommendation: Pass.