Ai
AiOddsLab
All analyses
Verdict: Better Off Passing. Rating 48 out of 100. Grade D.
Ai
AiOddsLab
Bet365
Better Off PassingD

Price or risk doesn't justify it

Same Game Parlay

Your price is worse than fair (-6.0% vs fair). Skip unless you have a strong independent read.

Your odds
+500
Fair odds
+538
Edge
-6.0%
Price bump+13%Est. true win chance15.7%
Ai

Settle the debate

Save as image
Send link

AI breakdown

Verdict: This boost offers negative expected value despite the apparent price increase.

  • Value: The boosted price of +500 is worse than the devigged fair odds of +538, indicating a negative ROI of -5.96%.
  • Market context: The boost from +430 to +500 is numerically significant (13.2% increase), but it still falls short of the fair market price.
  • Status: the matchup is no notable injury signal for any player.
  • Social: the matchup data from Reddit.
  • Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay, inherently carrying multi-leg parlay variance.

Smart insight: The outcome of the "Run in the 1st Inning - No" leg will heavily influence the bet's overall EV, as it's a binary outcome impacting scoring environment. Similar profile: This is a 3-leg SGP combining pitcher strikeout props with a first inning scoring prop, which typically resolves closer to fair value than advertised boosts. Counter-case: The negative expected value against devigged fair odds is a strong reason to fade this boost. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.

Recommendation: Pass

How this bet was graded

Grade D · 48/100 · Better Off Passing

We graded Same Game Parlay at +500 on Bet365 — a 3-leg ticket by comparing the offered price to a vig-free consensus of the wider market. The ticket centers on Mitch Keller, George Kirby, A Run in the 1st Inning - No. The bet earned a D grade (48/100), which we label "Better Off Passing".

The headline number is edge versus fair: -5.96%. That figure is the long-run expected return per dollar staked, assuming the market consensus is an unbiased estimate of true probability. At odds this long, even a strongly positive edge cashes infrequently — single-bet variance dominates short samples. Because we couldn't fully match this market across other books, fair value here was derived from the host book's pre-boost line — treat the edge as directional rather than precise.

Fair odds calculation

Fair +538 · Implied 15.7%

Fair odds represent the price you'd see in a perfectly efficient, zero-margin market. To compute them we pull current prices from the available sportsbooks on the same market, strip out each book's vig, and average the resulting no-vig probabilities. The averaged probability for this outcome lands at 15.7%, which converts to fair odds of +538.

Compared to the boosted price of +500 (a +13.2% move from the original line), that produces an edge of -5.96%. In plain English: if the market is right about the true probability, you'd expect to lose about 6.0 cents on every dollar staked, on average, across many bets of this exact shape.

Historical context

Midrange dogs (+200 to +500) · sgp

Narrowing to the same market type, 395 graded sgp tickets, average edge of +3.30%, average rating 45/100. This is the closest apples-to-apples reference for the bet you're looking at.

Filtering by odds range alone (midrange dogs (+200 to +500)), 233 graded tickets, average edge of +4.22%, average rating 50/100.

Stats update as new tickets are analyzed and graded. Sample sizes below 5 are suppressed.

Why the market disagrees

The wider market is pricing this outcome tighter than Bet365's line suggests is reasonable. With an edge of -6.0%, you're paying a premium versus the consensus fair price of +538. The bet can still win — odds are not destiny — but the price embeds a built-in disadvantage that compounds across repeated wagers. Shopping the same market at a sharper book, or waiting for the line to move, is usually the correct response.

Frequently asked questions

What does a -6.0% edge mean?

Edge measures the gap between the price you're getting (+500) and the fair price implied by the broader market (+538). A negative edge of -6.0% means the price is worse than fair value. You can still win the bet, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. Edge and win probability are different things. The market still implies roughly a 16.7% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet is one that pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually. The edge only shows up across many similar wagers.

How are fair odds calculated?

Fair odds are derived by taking sportsbook prices on the same market, removing the bookmaker's vig (the built-in margin), and averaging the resulting no-vig probabilities. For this bet we used the available market price to estimate a true win probability of 15.7%, which converts to fair odds of +538. The boosted price of +500 is then compared against that fair line to compute edge.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Sportsbooks usually advertise the percentage lift over their own original price, which they set with house margin built in. Our grade compares the boosted price to a vig-free market consensus, so a "+50%" advertised lift can still grade poorly if the original line was already inflated, and a small lift can grade well if it pushes a fair price into +EV territory.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even an D-grade bet can lose, and you should size stakes within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and consider your own information about the matchup. This tool helps you avoid bad prices — it doesn't replace judgment or responsible bankroll management.