What does a -16.9% edge mean?

A negative edge of -16.9% means the price (+1100) is worse than fair value (+1344). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 8.3% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 6.9%, which converts to fair odds of +1344.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a F-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

Same Game Parlay: Erling Haaland to Score, Kylian Mbappe to Score, Kylian Mbappe 2+ Shots on Target, Erling Haaland 2+ Shots on Target, Michael Olise To Score or Assist — F Grade — Long Shot (Fun Only) (19/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

Bet365

Better Off PassingBalancedF

Price or risk doesn't justify it

Same Game Parlay: Erling Haaland to Score, Kylian Mbappe to Score, Kylian Mbappe 2+ Shots on Target, Erling Haaland 2+ Shots on Target, Michael Olise To Score or Assist

Without a confirmed fair price, the responsible call is patience. Re-check closer to game time when more books post.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.1u · Lottery

Long shot energy — small stake, big screenshot if it hits.

Your odds

+1100

Fair odds

+1344

Edge

—

Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This parlay combines some exciting attacking talent for a fun longshot!

Value: The offered price of +1100 is quite a bit lower than the devigged an estimated fair price, suggesting a negative expected value of -16.90%.
Market context: Your price of +1100 is short of the calculated an estimated fair price.
Status: No notable injury signal for any of the players involved.
Social: the matchup isn't enough public sentiment to get a read on this specific parlay.
Risk: This is a 5-leg parlay, and the nature of multi-leg parlays naturally adds variance.

Smart insight: Michael the matchup contribution is a significant part of this bet, and his S/A prop will heavily influence the overall EV. Similar profile: Longshot multi-leg soccer parlays with multiple goal scorers often have high variance and can be tough to hit even at generous prices. Counter-case: The primary challenge here is the lower offered price compared to the fair odds. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off. Stake suggestion: the matchup.

How this bet was graded

Grade F · 19/100 · Better Off Passing

Same Game Parlay: Erling Haaland to Score, Kylian Mbappe to Score, Kylian Mbappe 2+ Shots on Target, Erling Haaland 2+ Shots on Target, Michael Olise To Score or Assist at +1100 on Bet365 (5 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. F (19/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an F-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.