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FProbably skip· Sportsbook Special

Same Game Parlay

Grade F · Avoid

Heavily overpriced and/or weak across the board — rating 28/100 with 6.9% off fair. Sportsbook special.

Looks shiny, prices like a tax. The book is the one celebrating this one.

Sportsbook Special Vegas Thanks You
Value
8

Edge vs devigged fair price

Market
56

Compares to best alt book

Historical
55

Similar boosts performance

Safety
18

Higher = lower variance

Social
51

Reddit sentiment (soft)

Ai
AiOddsLabVerdict
Bet365
28/100
PROBABLY SKIPSportsbook Special

Same Game Parlay

"Looks shiny, prices like a tax. The book is the one celebrating this one."

Your Odds
+550
Edge
-6.9%
Price Bump
+12%
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Settle the debate — AiOddsLab graded "Same Game Parlay" (Bet365) 28/100. Looks like a sportsbook special. Would you still tail it? https://aioddslab.com/analyzer/same-game-parlay-e7y2q8

The numbers

Boosted odds+550
Original odds+480
Market consensus+480
Devigged fair+598
Implied probability15.4%
Fair probability14.3%
Boost % gained+12.1%
Expected ROI-6.88%
Edge vs fair-6.88%

Market comparison

Per-leg fair odds, then combined.

Partial: 0/3 legs matched
Some legs lacked competitor prices. Edge calculated against the hosting book's original parlay price, not a full multi-book consensus.
SGP correlation markdown · −15%
SGP correlation: 2 overlapping positive legs (same game). Fair probability marked down 15%.
Leg 1unmatched
Money Line - SD Padres
Leg 2unmatched
Gavin Sheets: 1+ Runs Batted In
Leg 3unmatched
Jackson Merrill: 1+ Runs
Bet365 (boosted)+550
Combined consensus+480
Combined fair (devigged)+598

Legs

  • 1.Money Line - SD Padres
  • 2.Gavin Sheets: 1+ Runs Batted In
  • 3.Jackson Merrill: 1+ Runs

AI breakdown

Verdict: This boost offers negative expected value compared to the fair odds.

  • Value: The boosted odds of +550 are significantly lower than the devigged fair odds of +598, indicating a -6.88% edge.
  • Market context: The Bet365 boosted price (+550) is weaker than the combined devigged fair odds of +598.
  • Status: There is no notable injury signal for the players involved.
  • Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay, subject to multi-leg parlay variance.
  • Recommendation: Pass.