Same Game Parlay
Grade F · Avoid
Heavily overpriced and/or weak across the board — rating 31/100 with 5.0% off fair. Sportsbook special.
You're paying more than the market thinks this is worth. Sit on it unless you have a strong read.
Edge vs devigged fair price
Compares to best alt book
Similar boosts performance
Higher = lower variance
Reddit sentiment (soft)
Same Game Parlay
"You're paying more than the market thinks this is worth. Sit on it unless you have a strong read."
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The numbers
Market comparison
Per-leg fair odds, then combined.
Legs
- 1.Daylen Lile: 2+ Total Bases
- 2.James Wood: 2+ Total Bases
- 3.Luis Garcia: 2+ Total Bases
AI breakdown
Verdict: This boost offers negative expected value and should be avoided.
- Value: The boosted odds of +900 are worse than the calculated fair odds of +953, indicating a -5.03% edge.
- Market context: The boost provides a 14.3% increase over the original odds of +775, but still falls short of the true fair price.
- Status: No notable injury signal.
- Social: Insufficient data on Reddit for a social pulse.
- Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay, which inherently carries high multi-leg parlay variance.
Smart insight: The negative EV suggests the prices for Daylen Lile, James Wood, or Luis Garcia to each get 2+ total bases are likely overvalued in this parlay. Similar profile: 3-leg MLB Same Game Parlays on total bases at plus money often involve significant juiced lines. Counter-case: The primary reason to fade is the calculated negative expected value, even with the boosted price. Live context: Monitor lineups near tip-off.
Recommendation: Pass