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31AiOddsLab
FProbably skip· Overpriced

Same Game Parlay

Grade F · Avoid

Heavily overpriced and/or weak across the board — rating 31/100 with 5.0% off fair. Sportsbook special.

You're paying more than the market thinks this is worth. Sit on it unless you have a strong read.

Sportsbook Special Vegas Thanks You
Value
13

Edge vs devigged fair price

Market
65

Compares to best alt book

Historical
50

Similar boosts performance

Safety
14

Higher = lower variance

Social
42

Reddit sentiment (soft)

Ai
AiOddsLabVerdict
Bet365
31/100
PROBABLY SKIPOverpriced

Same Game Parlay

"You're paying more than the market thinks this is worth. Sit on it unless you have a strong read."

Boosted
+900
Edge
-5.0%
Boost
+14%
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Settle the debate — AiOddsLab graded "Same Game Parlay" (Bet365) 31/100. Looks like a sportsbook special. Would you still tail it? https://aioddslab.com/analyzer/same-game-parlay-do5upc

The numbers

Boosted odds+900
Original odds+775
Market consensus+775
Devigged fair+953
Implied probability10.0%
Fair probability9.5%
Boost % gained+14.3%
Expected ROI-5.03%
Edge vs fair-5.03%

Market comparison

Per-leg fair odds, then combined.

Partial: 0/3 legs matched
Some legs lacked competitor prices. Edge calculated against the hosting book's original parlay price, not a full multi-book consensus.
SGP correlation markdown · −15%
SGP correlation: 3 overlapping positive legs (same game). Fair probability marked down 15%.
Leg 1unmatched
Daylen Lile: 2+ Total Bases
Leg 2unmatched
James Wood: 2+ Total Bases
Leg 3unmatched
Luis Garcia: 2+ Total Bases
Bet365 (boosted)+900
Combined consensus+775
Combined fair (devigged)+953

Legs

  • 1.Daylen Lile: 2+ Total Bases
  • 2.James Wood: 2+ Total Bases
  • 3.Luis Garcia: 2+ Total Bases

AI breakdown

Verdict: This boost offers negative expected value and should be avoided.

  • Value: The boosted odds of +900 are worse than the calculated fair odds of +953, indicating a -5.03% edge.
  • Market context: The boost provides a 14.3% increase over the original odds of +775, but still falls short of the true fair price.
  • Status: No notable injury signal.
  • Social: Insufficient data on Reddit for a social pulse.
  • Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay, which inherently carries high multi-leg parlay variance.

Smart insight: The negative EV suggests the prices for Daylen Lile, James Wood, or Luis Garcia to each get 2+ total bases are likely overvalued in this parlay. Similar profile: 3-leg MLB Same Game Parlays on total bases at plus money often involve significant juiced lines. Counter-case: The primary reason to fade is the calculated negative expected value, even with the boosted price. Live context: Monitor lineups near tip-off.

Recommendation: Pass