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FProbably skip· Overpriced

Same Game Parlay

Grade F · Avoid

Heavily overpriced and/or weak across the board — rating 30/100 with 6.1% off fair. Sportsbook special.

You're paying more than the market thinks this is worth. Sit on it unless you have a strong read.

Sportsbook Special Vegas Thanks You
Value
11

Edge vs devigged fair price

Market
56

Compares to best alt book

Historical
55

Similar boosts performance

Safety
18

Higher = lower variance

Social
51

Reddit sentiment (soft)

Ai
AiOddsLabVerdict
Bet365
30/100
PROBABLY SKIPOverpriced

Same Game Parlay

"You're paying more than the market thinks this is worth. Sit on it unless you have a strong read."

Your Odds
+550
Edge
-6.1%
Price Bump
+13%
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Settle the debate — AiOddsLab graded "Same Game Parlay" (Bet365) 30/100. Looks like a sportsbook special. Would you still tail it? https://aioddslab.com/analyzer/same-game-parlay-bskg1q

The numbers

Boosted odds+550
Original odds+475
Market consensus+475
Devigged fair+592
Implied probability15.4%
Fair probability14.5%
Boost % gained+13.0%
Expected ROI-6.07%
Edge vs fair-6.07%

Market comparison

Per-leg fair odds, then combined.

Partial: 0/3 legs matched
Some legs lacked competitor prices. Edge calculated against the hosting book's original parlay price, not a full multi-book consensus.
SGP correlation markdown · −15%
SGP correlation: 2 overlapping positive legs (same game). Fair probability marked down 15%.
Leg 1unmatched
Money Line - TEX Rangers
Leg 2unmatched
Brandon Nimmo: 2+ Total Bases
Leg 3unmatched
Corey Seager: 2+ Total Bases
Bet365 (boosted)+550
Combined consensus+475
Combined fair (devigged)+592

Legs

  • 1.Money Line - TEX Rangers
  • 2.Brandon Nimmo: 2+ Total Bases
  • 3.Corey Seager: 2+ Total Bases

AI breakdown

Verdict: This boost offers negative expected value.

  • Value: The boost at +550 is significantly lower than the estimated fair odds of +592, indicating a -6.07% edge.
  • Market context: Compared to the original odds of +475, the boosted price is an improvement, but still below the combined devigged fair odds.
  • Status: There is no notable injury signal for any player.
  • Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay, inherently carrying multi-leg parlay variance.
  • Recommendation: Pass.