Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 33.3% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 46.5%, which converts to fair odds of +115.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a A+-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

SAME GAME PARLAY — A+ Grade — Strong +EV Play (86/100)

Q: What does a +39.5% edge mean?

A positive edge of +39.5% means the price (+200) pays more than the fair price (+115). Over many identical bets, that gap is your expected return per dollar staked.

All analyses

AiOddsLab

theScore Bet

Lottery TicketBalancedA+

Longshot — fun stake only

SAME GAME PARLAY

Decent number, shaky supporting data. A quarter-unit play — not a confidence bet.

Stake idea · Balanced

2u · Loud

Genuine value — comfortable going bigger here.

Your odds

+200

Fair odds

+115

Edge

+39.5%

Price bump+43%Est. true win chance46.5%

Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

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Inside angles

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Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

How this bet was graded

Grade A+ · 86/100 · Lottery Ticket

SAME GAME PARLAY at +200 on theScore Bet: we devig the available market on the same market to estimate a true win probability of 46.5% — fair odds +115. The gap between +200 and +115 is the +39.53% edge: your long-run expected return per dollar if the market is right about true probability.

Frequently asked questions

What does a +39.5% edge mean?

Across many identical wagers, you'd expect to gain about 39.5 cents on every dollar staked — that's the gap between +200 and the consensus fair price (+115). Single-bet variance still dominates the short run.

Does a positive edge mean this is likely to win?

No. The price still implies roughly a 33.3% chance the ticket cashes. +EV means the payout exceeds the true probability — most positive-EV longshots still lose individually. The edge only shows up across many similar bets.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an A+-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.