What does a -2.2% edge mean?

A negative edge of -2.2% means the price (+850) is worse than fair value (+871). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 10.5% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 10.3%, which converts to fair odds of +871.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a D-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

Same Game Multi: Norway & Yes, Erling Haaland To Score, Erling Haaland 2+ Shots On Target, Senegal Over 0 Corners In 1st Half — D Grade — Overpriced Bet (31/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

Bet365

Better Off PassingBalancedD

Price or risk doesn't justify it

Same Game Multi: Norway & Yes, Erling Haaland To Score, Erling Haaland 2+ Shots On Target, Senegal Over 0 Corners In 1st Half

Without a confirmed fair price, the responsible call is patience. Re-check closer to game time when more books post.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.1u · Sprinkle

A bit pricey. Sprinkle if you've got a strong read.

Your odds

+850

Fair odds

+871

Edge

—

Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

Save as image

Send link

Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Value: The offered price of +850 is slightly worse than the devigged an estimated fair price, indicating negative expected value.
Market context: The price offers no edge against the calculated fair odds.
Status: the matchup is no notable injury signal for any listed player.
Risk: 8-leg parlay variance. With 8 independent conditions required, hit rate compounds quickly and one miss voids the ticket. No verifiable correlation signal from the inputs provided. Smart insight: The outcome of Erling the matchup scoring and shot volume will most heavily influence this bet's success or failure. Similar profile: This is a multi-leg soccer SGP combining player props and team stats, a profile that frequently resolves below fair true odds due to correlated outcomes. Counter-case: The primary reason to fade is the negative expected value and the inherent low probability of an 8-leg parlay hitting. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off. Recommendation: Pass

How this bet was graded

Grade D · 31/100 · Better Off Passing

Same Game Multi: Norway & Yes, Erling Haaland To Score, Erling Haaland 2+ Shots On Target, Senegal Over 0 Corners In 1st Half at +850 on Bet365 (8 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. D (31/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an D-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.