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FProbably skip· Overpriced

Pitchers Duel

Grade F · Avoid

Heavily overpriced and/or weak across the board — rating 33/100 with 1.5% off fair. Sportsbook special.

You're paying more than the market thinks this is worth. Sit on it unless you have a strong read.

Sportsbook Special
Value
26

Edge vs devigged fair price

Market
52

Compares to best alt book

Historical
43

Similar boosts performance

Safety
18

Higher = lower variance

Social
48

Reddit sentiment (soft)

Ai
AiOddsLabVerdict
FanDuel
33/100
PROBABLY SKIPOverpriced

Pitchers Duel

"You're paying more than the market thinks this is worth. Sit on it unless you have a strong read."

Your Odds
+700
Edge
-1.5%
Price Bump
+19%
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Settle the debate — AiOddsLab graded "Pitchers Duel" (FanDuel) 33/100. Looks like a sportsbook special. Would you still tail it? https://aioddslab.com/analyzer/pitchers-duel-ojj9tl

The numbers

Boosted odds+700
Original odds+575
Market consensus+575
Devigged fair+712
Implied probability12.5%
Fair probability12.3%
Boost % gained+18.5%
Expected ROI-1.48%
Edge vs fair-1.48%

Market comparison

Per-leg fair odds, then combined.

Partial: 0/3 legs matched
Some legs lacked competitor prices. Edge calculated against the hosting book's original parlay price, not a full multi-book consensus.
SGP correlation markdown · −15%
SGP correlation: 2 overlapping positive legs (same game). Fair probability marked down 15%.
Leg 1unmatched
A Run in the 1st Inning - No
Leg 2unmatched
Justin Wrobleski: 6+ Pitcher Strikeouts
Leg 3unmatched
Mitch Keller: 4+ Pitcher Strikeouts
FanDuel (boosted)+700
Combined consensus+575
Combined fair (devigged)+712

Legs

  • 1.A Run in the 1st Inning - No
  • 2.Justin Wrobleski: 6+ Pitcher Strikeouts
  • 3.Mitch Keller: 4+ Pitcher Strikeouts

AI breakdown

Verdict: This boost offers negative expected value and should be avoided.

  • Value: The boosted odds of +700 are worse than the calculated fair odds of +712, indicating a negative edge of -1.48%.
  • Market context: At +700, the boost presents a lower payout than its underlying probability suggests by comparison to the devigged fair odds.
  • Status: There is no notable injury signal.
  • Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay, which inherently carries significant multi-leg parlay variance.
  • Recommendation: Pass.