What does a -2.2% edge mean?

A negative edge of -2.2% means the price (+1600) is worse than fair value (+1638). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 5.9% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 5.8%, which converts to fair odds of +1638.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a D-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

Philly Philly — D Grade — Overpriced Bet (46/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

FanDuel

Better Off PassingBalancedD

Price or risk doesn't justify it

Philly Philly

You're paying a tax on this one. Same ticket elsewhere likely prices tighter than -2.2%.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.1u · Sprinkle

A bit pricey. Sprinkle if you've got a strong read.

Your odds

+1600

Fair odds

+1638

Edge

-2.2%

Est. true win chance5.8%

Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This single-leg boost offers an unmatched future price for the Philadelphia Eagles.

Value: With no original odds provided, the value against an assumed original price is indeterminate, showing 0.0% boost.
Market context: No comparative market odds are available to assess this +1600 future.
Status: No notable injury signal.
Social: the matchup is insufficient data to assess social sentiment.
Risk: This is a single-leg future, carrying the inherent long-term variance of an outright bet.

Smart insight: This bet's EV is entirely dependent on the Philadelphia Eagles' outright performance throughout the season and playoffs. Similar profile: the matchup outright future bets in the NFL often present long odds with significant variance. Counter-case: The long-term nature of futures bets introduces substantial uncertainty and potential for unforeseen events. Live context: the matchup any news regarding team roster changes or key personnel developments throughout the offseason and season.

Recommendation: Pass.

How this bet was graded

Grade D · 46/100 · Better Off Passing

Philly Philly at +1600 on FanDuel: we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. D (46/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an D-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.