What does a -16.9% edge mean?

A negative edge of -16.9% means the price (-278) is worse than fair value (-157). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 73.5% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 61.1%, which converts to fair odds of -157.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a F-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

New York Yankees (C Schlittler) @ Boston Red Sox (C Early) Same Game Parlay — F Grade — Long Shot (Fun Only) (24/100)

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Bet365

Better Off PassingBalancedF

Price or risk doesn't justify it

New York Yankees (C Schlittler) @ Boston Red Sox (C Early) Same Game Parlay

We'd rather tell you "we can't grade this" than fake a number. Pass, or stake it like entertainment.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.1u · Lottery

Long shot energy — small stake, big screenshot if it hits.

Your odds

-278

Fair odds

-157

Edge

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This Yankees @ Red Sox SGP offers an interesting look at a higher-scoring game combined with starting pitcher strikeouts!

Value: The offered price of -278 is significantly shorter than the devigged an estimated fair price, indicating a negative edge for this specific parlay.
Market context: the matchup to the fair odds, the individual legs are likely priced in a way that creates a disadvantage when combined at this offered price.
Status: the matchup is no notable injury signal for this matchup.
Social: the matchup is insufficient social media data to gauge public sentiment.
Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay, which always brings multi-leg parlay variance into play, and the offered price further magnifies that.

Smart insight: The Over 6.5 Alternate Total Runs leg will likely be the most impactful in determining the outcome of this parlay. Similar profile: the matchup total, multi-leg parlays that rely on starting pitcher strikeouts tend to be entertainment plays due to their inherent volatility. Counter-case: The primary challenge here is the offered price for this parlay being substantially shorter than its fair value. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off. Stake suggestion: the matchup stake.

How this bet was graded

Grade F · 24/100 · Better Off Passing

New York Yankees (C Schlittler) @ Boston Red Sox (C Early) Same Game Parlay at -278 on Bet365 (3 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. F (24/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an F-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.