We graded New York Yankees (C Schlittler) @ Boston Red Sox (C Early) Same Game Parlay at -278 on Bet365 — a 3-leg ticket by comparing the offered price to a vig-free consensus of the wider market. The ticket centers on Cam Schlittler, Connelly Early, Over 6.5 Alternate Total Runs. The bet earned a F grade (24/100), which we label "Better Off Passing".

The headline number is edge versus fair: -16.94%. That figure is the long-run expected return per dollar staked, assuming the market consensus is an unbiased estimate of true probability. On a heavy favorite, a small percentage edge still matters because stake sizes are typically large. Because we couldn't fully match this market across other books, fair value here was derived from the host book's own posted line — treat the edge as directional rather than precise.

Fair odds represent the price you'd see in a perfectly efficient, zero-margin market. To compute them we pull current prices from the available sportsbooks on the same market, strip out each book's vig, and average the resulting no-vig probabilities. The averaged probability for this outcome lands at 61.1%, which converts to fair odds of -157.

Compared to the offered price of -278 (a +0.0% move from the original line), that produces an edge of -16.94%. In plain English: if the market is right about the true probability, you'd expect to lose about 16.9 cents on every dollar staked, on average, across many bets of this exact shape.

Across AiOddsLab's database, we've scored 359 graded MLB bets, 12.0% hit rate on settled tickets, average edge of +370.59%, average rating 48/100. That sample gives a baseline expectation for what a "fair" hit rate looks like in this sport — use it to sanity-check your own bankroll math.

Narrowing to the same market type, 115 graded sgp tickets, 0.0% hit rate on settled tickets, average edge of +49.44%, average rating 45/100. This is the closest apples-to-apples reference for the bet you're looking at.

In the trailing 90 days, 359 graded MLB bets, 12.0% hit rate on settled tickets, average edge of +370.59%, average rating 48/100. Compare that to the all-time baseline above to see whether grading and outcomes have drifted recently.

Stats update as new tickets are analyzed and graded. Sample sizes below 5 are suppressed.

The wider market is pricing this outcome tighter than Bet365's line suggests is reasonable. With an edge of -16.9%, you're paying a premium versus the consensus fair price of -157. The bet can still win — odds are not destiny — but the price embeds a built-in disadvantage that compounds across repeated wagers. Shopping the same market at a sharper book, or waiting for the line to move, is usually the correct response.