Price or risk doesn't justify it
Custom bet builder — books don't post a comparable line, and the legs almost certainly carry correlation juice you can't see. Skip unless this is a fun ticket.
Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.
Verdict: This boost offers negative expected value and should be passed.
Smart insight: The price sensitivity of this bet is high; even a slight shift in the implied probability of any leg would further impact the already negative EV. Similar profile: the matchup same-game parlays in highly variable sports like soccer frequently resolve below consensus fair value due to the inherent correlation and variance. Counter-case: The statistical improbability of any single player scoring 2+ goals in a soccer match adds substantial independent risk to an already unfavorable boosted price. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.
Recommendation: Pass
Grade F · 22/100 · Better Off Passing
Kai Havertz 2+ Goals, Germany Win, Franck Kessie 2+ Fouls at +1100 on Bet365 (3 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.
We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.
Yes. F (22/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.
Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an F-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.