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Verdict: Lottery Ticket. Rating 65 out of 100. Grade B.
Ai
AiOddsLab
Bet365
Lottery TicketB

Fun-stake only — variance is loud

Jonathan David Score with a Header (Switzerland v Canada)

Price beats fair (+6.7% vs fair), but match quality is weak. Tiny / fun stake only.

Your odds
+1100
Fair odds
+1025
Edge
+6.7%
Price bump+9%Est. true win chance8.9%
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AI breakdown

Verdict: the matchup taking on a unique scoring method.

  • Value: This boost offers a notable 6.67% edge against the fair odds, indicating true value.
  • Market context: The boosted +1100 improves upon the original +1000 and the devigged fair odds of +1025.
  • Status: No notable injury signal.
  • Social: the matchup social data available.
  • Risk: This is a single-leg prop with longshot odds, inherently carrying higher variance.

Smart insight: The value of this bet heavily hinges on the specific match dynamics and opportunities for Jonathan David to convert headers. Similar profile: This is a single-leg player prop on a specific scoring method, which often features volatile pricing and longshot odds. Counter-case: the matchup with a header is a highly specific and often infrequent event, making such a longshot prop inherently difficult to hit. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.

Recommendation: Small

How this bet was graded

Grade B · 65/100 · Lottery Ticket

We graded Jonathan David Score with a Header (Switzerland v Canada) at +1100 on Bet365 by comparing the offered price to a vig-free consensus of the wider market. The ticket centers on Jonathan David. The bet earned a B grade (65/100), which we label "Lottery Ticket".

The headline number is edge versus fair: +6.67%. That figure is the long-run expected return per dollar staked, assuming the market consensus is an unbiased estimate of true probability. At odds this long, even a strongly positive edge cashes infrequently — single-bet variance dominates short samples.

Fair odds calculation

Fair +1025 · Implied 8.9%

Fair odds represent the price you'd see in a perfectly efficient, zero-margin market. To compute them we pull current prices from the available sportsbooks on the same market, strip out each book's vig, and average the resulting no-vig probabilities. The averaged probability for this outcome lands at 8.9%, which converts to fair odds of +1025.

Compared to the boosted price of +1100 (a +9.1% move from the original line), that produces an edge of +6.67%. In plain English: if the market is right about the true probability, you'd expect to gain about 6.7 cents on every dollar staked, on average, across many bets of this exact shape.

Historical context

Big dogs (+500 to +1500) · Soccer · player_prop

Across AiOddsLab's database, we've scored 781 graded Soccer bets, average edge of +4.80%, average rating 48/100.

Narrowing to the same market type, 59 graded player_prop tickets, average edge of +15.26%, average rating 59/100. This is the closest apples-to-apples reference for the bet you're looking at.

Filtering by odds range alone (big dogs (+500 to +1500)), 179 graded tickets, average edge of +4.82%, average rating 44/100.

In the trailing 90 days, 781 graded Soccer bets, average edge of +4.80%, average rating 48/100. Compare that to the all-time baseline above to see whether grading and outcomes have drifted recently.

Stats update as new tickets are analyzed and graded. Sample sizes below 5 are suppressed.

Why the market may be wrong

A +6.7% edge implies Bet365 is pricing this outcome more generously than the field. That can happen for a few reasons: the book is using a promotional lift to attract action, the line hasn't caught up to a recent move elsewhere, or it's a low-limit market the sharper books haven't shaped yet. None of these guarantee the bet hits — they only suggest the price is on your side relative to consensus.

Frequently asked questions

What does a +6.7% edge mean?

Edge measures the gap between the price you're getting (+1100) and the fair price implied by the broader market (+1025). A positive edge of +6.7% means the boost is paying more than the market thinks the outcome is worth. Over a long run of identical situations, that gap is your expected return per dollar wagered — though variance on any single bet is large.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. Edge and win probability are different things. The market still implies roughly a 8.3% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet is one that pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually. The edge only shows up across many similar wagers.

How are fair odds calculated?

Fair odds are derived by taking sportsbook prices on the same market, removing the bookmaker's vig (the built-in margin), and averaging the resulting no-vig probabilities. For this bet we used the available market price to estimate a true win probability of 8.9%, which converts to fair odds of +1025. The boosted price of +1100 is then compared against that fair line to compute edge.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Sportsbooks usually advertise the percentage lift over their own original price, which they set with house margin built in. Our grade compares the boosted price to a vig-free market consensus, so a "+50%" advertised lift can still grade poorly if the original line was already inflated, and a small lift can grade well if it pushes a fair price into +EV territory.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even an B-grade bet can lose, and you should size stakes within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and consider your own information about the matchup. This tool helps you avoid bad prices — it doesn't replace judgment or responsible bankroll management.