Longshot — fun stake only
Too custom to grade against live odds. Treat the stake like a movie ticket.
Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.
Verdict: This parlay offers a slight edge at the current price.
9% price improvement over the original +2600.
Smart insight: the matchup a longshot, the significant price improvement here is the primary driver of the positive EV, overcoming the low probability of two specific players hitting home runs. Similar profile: This is a classic "two players to hit a home run" parlay, a category often featuring long odds, typically resolving at low strike rates. Counter-case: The primary risk is the low base probability of any individual player hitting a home run, compounded in a two-leg parlay. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.
Recommendation: Small
Grade C · 69/100 · Lottery Ticket
Home Run Heroes at +3300 on DraftKings (2 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+25.9%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.
We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.
Yes. C (69/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.
Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an C-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.