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32AiOddsLab
FProbably skip· Overpriced

Home Cooking

Grade F · Avoid

Heavily overpriced and/or weak across the board — rating 32/100 with 3.7% off fair. Sportsbook special.

You're paying more than the market thinks this is worth. Sit on it unless you have a strong read.

Sportsbook Special Vegas Thanks You
Value
21

Edge vs devigged fair price

Market
54

Compares to best alt book

Historical
57

Similar boosts performance

Safety
8

Higher = lower variance

Social
50

Reddit sentiment (soft)

Ai
AiOddsLabVerdict
DraftKings
32/100
PROBABLY SKIPOverpriced

Home Cooking

"You're paying more than the market thinks this is worth. Sit on it unless you have a strong read."

Your Odds
+1000
Edge
-3.7%
Price Bump
+16%
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Settle the debate — AiOddsLab graded "Home Cooking" (DraftKings) 32/100. Looks like a sportsbook special. Would you still tail it? https://aioddslab.com/analyzer/home-cooking-x3bnc5

The numbers

Boosted odds+1000
Original odds+850
Market consensus+850
Devigged fair+1042
Implied probability9.1%
Fair probability8.8%
Boost % gained+15.8%
Expected ROI-3.68%
Edge vs fair-3.68%

Market comparison

Per-leg fair odds, then combined.

Partial: 0/3 legs matched
Some legs lacked competitor prices. Edge calculated against the hosting book's original parlay price, not a full multi-book consensus.
SGP correlation markdown · −15%
SGP correlation: 2 overlapping positive legs (same game). Fair probability marked down 15%.
Leg 1unmatched
Money Line - Mexico
Leg 2unmatched
Raul Jimenez: 2+ Shots on Target
Leg 3unmatched
Julian Quinones: 2+ Shots on Target
DraftKings (boosted)+1000
Combined consensus+850
Combined fair (devigged)+1042

Legs

  • 1.Money Line - Mexico
  • 2.Raul Jimenez: 2+ Shots on Target
  • 3.Julian Quinones: 2+ Shots on Target

AI breakdown

Verdict: This boost offers a worse return than the calculated fair odds.

  • Value: The boost at +1000 is lower than the combined devigged fair odds of +1042, indicating negative expected value.
  • Market context: DraftKings' boosted +1000 price is 3.68% worse than the calculated fair odds. The original price of +850 suggests DraftKings is offering a boost on legs they already priced at a significant disadvantage.
  • Status: No notable injury signal.
  • Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay, increasing variance, and includes two prop bets for 2+ Shots on Target from Raul Jimenez and Julian Quinones.
  • Recommendation: Pass.