What does a -16.9% edge mean?

A negative edge of -16.9% means the price (+220) is worse than fair value (+285). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 31.3% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 26.0%, which converts to fair odds of +285.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a F-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

Harry Kane will score or assist + Raúl Jiménez 2+ shots on target + Over 5 corners — F Grade — Long Shot (Fun Only) (33/100)

All analyses

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DraftKings

Better Off PassingBalancedF

Price or risk doesn't justify it

Harry Kane will score or assist + Raúl Jiménez 2+ shots on target + Over 5 corners

Without a confirmed fair price, the responsible call is patience. Re-check closer to game time when more books post.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.1u · Lottery

Long shot energy — small stake, big screenshot if it hits.

Your odds

+220

Fair odds

+285

Edge

—

Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: An interesting parlay combining a star player's direct involvement, a forward's attacking volume, and overall game flow!

Value: the matchup no direct market consensus to compare against, so the value here comes down to your read on the individual legs and how they combine.
Market context: the matchup there's no combined market consensus, it's hard to gauge the precision of this offer relative to general market pricing.
Status: No notable injury signal for any listed players.
Social: the matchup data from Reddit to draw insights.
Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay, and as with all multi-leg bets, the variance can be high.

Smart insight: Harry the matchup involvement in a goal is a crucial leg for this parlay, given his consistent offensive production. Similar profile: This bet is a classic recreational 3-leg SGP combining player props and a game total, often used for entertainment due to the higher payout potential. Counter-case: The thin market for these specific combined outcomes means there's less external validation on the true fair price. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.

Stake suggestion: the matchup stake.

How this bet was graded

Grade F · 33/100 · Better Off Passing

Harry Kane will score or assist + Raúl Jiménez 2+ shots on target + Over 5 corners at +220 on DraftKings (3 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. F (33/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an F-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.