What does a -2.2% edge mean?

A negative edge of -2.2% means the price (+395) is worse than fair value (+406). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 20.2% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 19.8%, which converts to fair odds of +406.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a B-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

GROBINAS SC vs FK AUDA - Match Result — B Grade — Modest Edge Play (56/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

Bet365

Better Off PassingBalancedB

Price or risk doesn't justify it

GROBINAS SC vs FK AUDA - Match Result

Same side, different book = a meaningfully better number. Don't leave it on the table.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.5u · Half

Reasonable spot — half a unit keeps it fun.

Your odds

+395

Fair odds

+406

Edge

-2.2%

Est. true win chance19.8%

Settle the debate

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This single-leg bet on GROBINAS SC in the match against FK AUDA offers an interesting price for a standalone play!

Value: The AiOddsLab rating of 56/100 suggests a neutral outlook on value, so the offered price might be factoring in a lot already.
Market context: the matchup direct comparisons to fair odds or other books for this particular match, it’s harder to pinpoint a clear edge.
Status: the matchup no notable injury signal for this matchup.
Social: the matchup isn't enough social media chatter to give us a read here.
Risk: This is a single-leg moneyline, which inherently carries less multi-leg parlay variance than bigger parlays.

Smart insight: The outcome of this match hinges entirely on GROBINAS the matchup performance as the sole focus of this bet. Similar profile: the matchup soccer moneyline plays at plus money often reflect perceived underdog pricing or a balanced matchup. Counter-case: The biggest challenge for this bet is the inherent unpredictability of a single match outcome, especially at a plus money price. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off for any last-minute changes that might impact the match. Stake suggestion: the matchup.

How this bet was graded

Grade B · 56/100 · Better Off Passing

GROBINAS SC vs FK AUDA - Match Result at +395 on Bet365: we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. B (56/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an B-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.