What does a -2.2% edge mean?

A negative edge of -2.2% means the price (+1190) is worse than fair value (+1219). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 7.8% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 7.6%, which converts to fair odds of +1219.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a D-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

GROBİNAS SC vs FK AUDA - Maç Sonucu — D Grade — Overpriced Bet (53/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

Bet365

Better Off PassingBalancedD

Price or risk doesn't justify it

GROBİNAS SC vs FK AUDA - Maç Sonucu

You're paying a tax on this one. Same ticket elsewhere likely prices tighter than -2.2%.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.1u · Sprinkle

A bit pricey. Sprinkle if you've got a strong read.

Your odds

+1190

Fair odds

+1219

Edge

-2.2%

Est. true win chance7.6%

Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: A single-leg moneyline at a nice longshot price on GROBİNAS SC has some interesting upside!

Value: With no fair odds provided, it's tough to pinpoint an exact edge, but any time you're getting double-digit odds on a single team to win, it's intriguing.
Market context: At +1190, this bet offers a substantial payout for a single moneyline prediction.
Status: No notable injury signals for this match up.
Social: the matchup public data to gauge social sentiment about this game.
Risk: GROBİNAS SC would need to pull off a significant upset for this bet to hit due to the long odds.

Smart insight: The entire bet hinges on GROBİNAS SC winning their match, making their performance the sole driver of success here. Similar profile: A single-leg moneyline bet at long odds in soccer, often characterized by higher variance due to the all-or-nothing nature of the outcome. Counter-case: The implied probability of GROBİNAS SC winning is quite low given the +1190 odds. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.

Stake suggestion: the matchup.

How this bet was graded

Grade D · 53/100 · Better Off Passing

GROBİNAS SC vs FK AUDA - Maç Sonucu at +1190 on Bet365: we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. D (53/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an D-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.