What does a -2.2% edge mean?

A negative edge of -2.2% means the price (+1800) is worse than fair value (+1843). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 5.3% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 5.1%, which converts to fair odds of +1843.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a D-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

Go Pack Go — D Grade — Overpriced Bet (42/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

FanDuel

Better Off PassingBalancedD

Price or risk doesn't justify it

Go Pack Go

Plus-money sides swing 20+ cents between books. At +1800, the shop is the bet.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.1u · Sprinkle

A bit pricey. Sprinkle if you've got a strong read.

Your odds

+1800

Fair odds

+1843

Edge

-2.2%

Est. true win chance5.1%

Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This Super Bowl LXI futures boost for the GB Packers offers no discernible value without original or fair odds.

Value: The boosted odds of +1800 cannot be assessed for value as no original or fair odds are provided.
Market context: the matchup are no consensus or alternative book odds available to compare against the boosted +1800.
Status: No notable injury signal.
Social: the matchup social data to gauge public sentiment.
Risk: This is a single-leg futures bet, which carries inherent long-term uncertainty.

Smart insight: The value of this bet is entirely dependent on the true probability of the GB Packers winning Super Bowl LXI, which is impossible to gauge from the provided data. Similar profile: the matchup futures bets in professional sports often see significant line movement as seasons progress and can be highly sensitive to unforeseen events. Counter-case: The lack of original odds or fair market comparisons makes it impossible to determine if this boost represents any actual edge. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.

Recommendation: Pass

How this bet was graded

Grade D · 42/100 · Better Off Passing

Go Pack Go at +1800 on FanDuel: we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. D (42/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an D-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.