What does a -2.4% edge mean?

A negative edge of -2.4% means the price (+190) is worse than fair value (+197). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 34.5% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 33.7%, which converts to fair odds of +197.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a B-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

George Holanl Any Time Touchdown Scorer (New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks) — B Grade — Modest Edge Play (45/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

Bet365

Better Off PassingBalancedB

Price or risk doesn't justify it

George Holanl Any Time Touchdown Scorer (New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks)

Niche prop with thin coverage. The price might be sharp, might be a trap — we genuinely can't tell.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.5u · Half

Reasonable spot — half a unit keeps it fun.

Your odds

+190

Fair odds

+197

Edge

—

Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This is an interesting single-leg play on a specific player to find the endzone!

Value: The AiOddsLab rating of 45/100 is neutral, indicating this particular bet doesn't show a clear market consensus or significant value compared to other available prices.
Market context: the matchup no comparable market consensus or devigged fair odds available, making it tough to stack up this +190 offer against alternatives.
Status: the matchup no notable injury signal for George Holanl, which is always good news for a player prop.
Social: Reddit doesn't currently have enough data to give us a strong read on this specific play.
Risk: This is a single-leg player prop, which always carries inherent variance due to game flow and specific opportunities within the game.

Smart insight: For an Any Time Touchdown bet, opportunity in the red zone for George Holanl will be the key factor moving the needle on this bet's potential. Similar profile: the matchup player props like this are often dependent on specific game scripts and player usage, making them a higher-variance play compared to broader market totals or spreads. Counter-case: The biggest thing working against this bet is the lack of a strong market consensus, meaning its true value is harder to pinpoint. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off to confirm George the matchup role and potential for touches.

Stake suggestion: the matchup stake.

How this bet was graded

Grade B · 45/100 · Better Off Passing

George Holanl Any Time Touchdown Scorer (New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks) at +190 on Bet365: we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. B (45/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an B-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.