Price or risk doesn't justify it
Bet builders price correlation as the book's profit, not yours. Without a fair number to anchor, this is a feel play, not a value one.
Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.
Verdict: This boost offers negative expected value and should be passed.
Smart insight: The outcome of this bet is highly sensitive to Ousmane Dembele and Michael Olise each achieving at least one shot on goal, as Kylian the matchup leg is likely priced as the most probable. Similar profile: Soccer player shot on goal parlays at plus money are a common SGP type that often come with reduced value compared to true probabilities. Counter-case: The significant negative edge against the fair odds is the strongest reason to fade this bet. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.
Recommendation: Pass
Grade F · 29/100 · Better Off Passing
França vs Iraque: Player Shots on Goal Parlay at +105 on Bet365 (3 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.
We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.
Yes. F (29/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.
Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an F-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.