Ai
AiOddsLab
All analyses
Verdict: Better Off Passing. Rating 29 out of 100. Grade F.
Ai
AiOddsLab
Bet365
Better Off PassingF

Price or risk doesn't justify it

França vs Iraque: Player Shots on Goal Parlay

Your price is worse than fair (-17.0% vs fair). Skip unless you have a strong independent read.

Your odds
+105
Fair odds
+147
Edge
-17.0%
Est. true win chance40.5%
Ai

Settle the debate

Save as image
Send link

AI breakdown

Verdict: This boost offers negative expected value and should be passed.

  • Value: The boosted odds of +105 are significantly worse than the devigged fair odds of +147, indicating a negative 17.00% edge.
  • Market context: At +105, this offer is considerably below the true probability implied by the fair odds of +147.
  • Status: the matchup is no notable injury signal for any of the players involved.
  • Social: the matchup data is available to assess the social pulse.
  • Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay, inherently carrying multi-leg parlay variance.

Smart insight: The outcome of this bet is highly sensitive to Ousmane Dembele and Michael Olise each achieving at least one shot on goal, as Kylian the matchup leg is likely priced as the most probable. Similar profile: Soccer player shot on goal parlays at plus money are a common SGP type that often come with reduced value compared to true probabilities. Counter-case: The significant negative edge against the fair odds is the strongest reason to fade this bet. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.

Recommendation: Pass

How this bet was graded

Grade F · 29/100 · Better Off Passing

We graded França vs Iraque: Player Shots on Goal Parlay at +105 on Bet365 — a 3-leg ticket by comparing the offered price to a vig-free consensus of the wider market. The ticket centers on Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele. The bet earned a F grade (29/100), which we label "Better Off Passing".

The headline number is edge versus fair: -17.00%. That figure is the long-run expected return per dollar staked, assuming the market consensus is an unbiased estimate of true probability. Because we couldn't fully match this market across other books, fair value here was derived from the host book's pre-boost line — treat the edge as directional rather than precise.

Fair odds calculation

Fair +147 · Implied 40.5%

Fair odds represent the price you'd see in a perfectly efficient, zero-margin market. To compute them we pull current prices from the available sportsbooks on the same market, strip out each book's vig, and average the resulting no-vig probabilities. The averaged probability for this outcome lands at 40.5%, which converts to fair odds of +147.

Compared to the boosted price of +105 (a +0.0% move from the original line), that produces an edge of -17.00%. In plain English: if the market is right about the true probability, you'd expect to lose about 17.0 cents on every dollar staked, on average, across many bets of this exact shape.

Historical context

Slight dogs (+100 to +200) · Soccer · sgp

Across AiOddsLab's database, we've scored 777 graded Soccer bets, average edge of +4.86%, average rating 48/100.

Narrowing to the same market type, 322 graded sgp tickets, average edge of +4.28%, average rating 46/100. This is the closest apples-to-apples reference for the bet you're looking at.

Filtering by odds range alone (slight dogs (+100 to +200)), 192 graded tickets, average edge of +5.96%, average rating 54/100.

In the trailing 90 days, 777 graded Soccer bets, average edge of +4.86%, average rating 48/100. Compare that to the all-time baseline above to see whether grading and outcomes have drifted recently.

Stats update as new tickets are analyzed and graded. Sample sizes below 5 are suppressed.

Why the market disagrees

The wider market is pricing this outcome tighter than Bet365's line suggests is reasonable. With an edge of -17.0%, you're paying a premium versus the consensus fair price of +147. The bet can still win — odds are not destiny — but the price embeds a built-in disadvantage that compounds across repeated wagers. Shopping the same market at a sharper book, or waiting for the line to move, is usually the correct response.

Frequently asked questions

What does a -17.0% edge mean?

Edge measures the gap between the price you're getting (+105) and the fair price implied by the broader market (+147). A negative edge of -17.0% means the price is worse than fair value. You can still win the bet, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. Edge and win probability are different things. The market still implies roughly a 48.8% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet is one that pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually. The edge only shows up across many similar wagers.

How are fair odds calculated?

Fair odds are derived by taking sportsbook prices on the same market, removing the bookmaker's vig (the built-in margin), and averaging the resulting no-vig probabilities. For this bet we used the available market price to estimate a true win probability of 40.5%, which converts to fair odds of +147. The boosted price of +105 is then compared against that fair line to compute edge.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Sportsbooks usually advertise the percentage lift over their own original price, which they set with house margin built in. Our grade compares the boosted price to a vig-free market consensus, so a "+50%" advertised lift can still grade poorly if the original line was already inflated, and a small lift can grade well if it pushes a fair price into +EV territory.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even an F-grade bet can lose, and you should size stakes within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and consider your own information about the matchup. This tool helps you avoid bad prices — it doesn't replace judgment or responsible bankroll management.