Longshot — fun stake only
Too custom to grade against live odds. Treat the stake like a movie ticket.
Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.
Verdict: This four-leg fou-based parlay at an offered price of +700 shows a positive expected value.
Smart insight: Luis Diaz and Yoane Wissa each winning 2+ fouls are key legs for this parlay, as their ability to draw contact will impact the parlay's success. Similar profile: the matchup player prop parlays centered on fouls are a common market, often resolving below their perceived fair value due to correlation or variance. Counter-case: The longshot nature of a 4-leg parlay, even with a positive EV, implies a low probability of hitting. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.
Recommendation: Standard
Grade B · 69/100 · Lottery Ticket
FOUL PLAY: Colombia v DR Congo at +700 on Bet365 (4 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+14.3%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.
We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.
Yes. B (69/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.
Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an B-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.