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FProbably skip· Sportsbook Special

Foul Play

Grade F · Avoid

Heavily overpriced and/or weak across the board — rating 22/100 with 10.5% off fair. Sportsbook special.

Looks shiny, prices like a tax. The book is the one celebrating this one.

Sportsbook Special Vegas Thanks You
Value
0

Edge vs devigged fair price

Market
51

Compares to best alt book

Historical
44

Similar boosts performance

Safety
22

Higher = lower variance

Social
50

Reddit sentiment (soft)

Ai
AiOddsLabVerdict
DraftKings
22/100
PROBABLY SKIPSportsbook Special

Foul Play

"Looks shiny, prices like a tax. The book is the one celebrating this one."

Your Odds
+600
Edge
-10.5%
Price Bump
+8%
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Settle the debate — AiOddsLab graded "Foul Play" (DraftKings) 22/100. Looks like a sportsbook special. Would you still tail it? https://aioddslab.com/analyzer/foul-play-clbhoh

The numbers

Boosted odds+600
Original odds+550
Market consensus+550
Devigged fair+682
Implied probability14.3%
Fair probability12.8%
Boost % gained+7.7%
Expected ROI-10.49%
Edge vs fair-10.49%

Market comparison

Per-leg fair odds, then combined.

Partial: 0/3 legs matched
Some legs lacked competitor prices. Edge calculated against the hosting book's original parlay price, not a full multi-book consensus.
SGP correlation markdown · −15%
SGP correlation: 3 overlapping positive legs (same game). Fair probability marked down 15%.
Leg 1unmatched
Edson Alvarez: 2+ Fouls Committed
Leg 2unmatched
Khuliso Mudau: 2+ Fouls Committed
Leg 3unmatched
Teboho Mokoena: 2+ Fouls Committed
DraftKings (boosted)+600
Combined consensus+550
Combined fair (devigged)+682

Legs

  • 1.Edson Alvarez: 2+ Fouls Committed
  • 2.Khuliso Mudau: 2+ Fouls Committed
  • 3.Teboho Mokoena: 2+ Fouls Committed

AI breakdown

Verdict: This boost offers negative expected value and is not recommended.

  • Value: The boosted odds of +600 are significantly lower than the fair odds of +682, indicating a -10.49% edge against the bettor.
  • Market context: DraftKings' boosted price of +600 is worse than the devigged fair odds, highlighting that this is a low-value proposition.
  • Status: No notable injury signals for Edson Alvarez, Khuliso Mudau, or Teboho Mokoena.
  • Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay, inherently bringing multi-leg parlay variance.
  • Recommendation: Pass.