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FProbably skip· Sportsbook Special

Forwards Firing

Grade F · Avoid

Heavily overpriced and/or weak across the board — rating 20/100 with 7.1% off fair. Sportsbook special.

Looks shiny, prices like a tax. The book is the one celebrating this one.

Sportsbook Special Vegas Thanks You
Value
6

Edge vs devigged fair price

Market
45

Compares to best alt book

Historical
48

Similar boosts performance

Safety
0

Higher = lower variance

Social
46

Reddit sentiment (soft)

Ai
AiOddsLabVerdict
Bet365
20/100
PROBABLY SKIPSportsbook Special

Forwards Firing

"Looks shiny, prices like a tax. The book is the one celebrating this one."

Your Odds
+1800
Edge
-7.1%
Price Bump
+12%
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Settle the debate — AiOddsLab graded "Forwards Firing" (Bet365) 20/100. Looks like a sportsbook special. Would you still tail it? https://aioddslab.com/analyzer/forwards-firing-h10vw5

The numbers

Boosted odds+1800
Original odds+1600
Market consensus+1600
Devigged fair+1945
Implied probability5.3%
Fair probability4.9%
Boost % gained+11.8%
Expected ROI-7.09%
Edge vs fair-7.09%

Market comparison

Per-leg fair odds, then combined.

Partial: 0/3 legs matched
Some legs lacked competitor prices. Edge calculated against the hosting book's original parlay price, not a full multi-book consensus.
SGP correlation markdown · −15%
SGP correlation: 3 overlapping positive legs (same game). Fair probability marked down 15%.
Leg 1unmatched
Jonathan David: 2+ Shots on Target
Leg 2unmatched
Edin Dzeko: 2+ Shots on Target
Leg 3unmatched
Both Teams to Score
Bet365 (boosted)+1800
Combined consensus+1600
Combined fair (devigged)+1945

Legs

  • 1.Jonathan David: 2+ Shots on Target
  • 2.Edin Dzeko: 2+ Shots on Target
  • 3.Both Teams to Score

AI breakdown

Verdict: This boost has a negative expected value and should be avoided.

  • Value: The boosted odds of +1800 are worse than the calculated devigged fair odds of +1945, indicating a negative edge.
  • Market context: The boost presents an 11.8% increase from the original sportsbook price but still falls short of the fair market value by a considerable margin.
  • Status: No notable injury signals have been retrieved for any players involved.
  • Risk: This is a three-leg parlay, inherently carrying high multi-leg parlay variance.
  • Recommendation: Pass.