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CCoin flip· Strong Value

Fire on the Mound

Grade C · Fair

Priced near the devigged market and the supporting signals are mixed (rating 50/100). Roughly a coin flip on value.

Priced noticeably better than the market average. Reasonable spot if you already liked this side.

Solid Value
Value
62

Edge vs devigged fair price

Market
42

Compares to best alt book

Historical
50

Similar boosts performance

Safety
31

Higher = lower variance

Social
51

Reddit sentiment (soft)

Ai
AiOddsLabVerdict
Bet365
50/100
COIN FLIPStrong Value

Fire on the Mound

"Priced noticeably better than the market average. Reasonable spot if you already liked this side."

Your Odds
+400
Edge
+8.7%
Price Bump
+11%
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Coin flip? AiOddsLab graded "Fire on the Mound" (Bet365) 50/100. Curious what the group chat thinks. https://aioddslab.com/analyzer/fire-on-the-mound-45cwg5

The numbers

Boosted odds+400
Original odds+350
Devigged fair+360
Implied probability20.0%
Fair probability21.7%
Boost % gained+11.1%
Expected ROI+8.70%
Edge vs fair+8.70%

Market comparison

Per-leg fair odds, then combined.

Leg 1unmatched
A Run in the 1st Inning - No
Leg 2unmatched
Chase Burns: 7+ Pitcher Strikeouts
Leg 3unmatched
Lucas Giolito: 5+ Pitcher Strikeouts
Bet365 (boosted)+400
Combined fair (devigged)+360

Player status

From ESPN injury feed.

  • ACTIVE
    Lucas Giolito

Legs

  • 1.A Run in the 1st Inning - No
  • 2.Chase Burns: 7+ Pitcher Strikeouts
  • 3.Lucas Giolito: 5+ Pitcher Strikeouts

AI breakdown

Verdict: This boost offers a slight edge through increased odds on a three-leg parlay, but multi-leg variance remains a factor.

  • Value: The boosted odds of +400 represent an 11.1% increase over the original +350 and provide a positive expected value of 8.70% against the devigged fair odds of +360.
  • Market context: The boost from +350 to +400 presents a favorable edge compared to the combined devigged fair odds of +360.
  • Status: Lucas Giolito is active.
  • Risk: This is a 3-leg parlay, which inherently carries significant risk due to multi-leg parlay variance.
  • Recommendation: Small