We graded Dodger Dinasía at +1000 on DraftKings — a 3-leg ticket by comparing the offered price to a vig-free consensus of the wider market. The ticket centers on Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani. The bet earned a B grade (75/100), which we label "Lottery Ticket".
The headline number is edge versus fair: +13.29%. That figure is the long-run expected return per dollar staked, assuming the market consensus is an unbiased estimate of true probability. At odds this long, even a strongly positive edge cashes infrequently — single-bet variance dominates short samples. Because we couldn't fully match this market across other books, fair value here was derived from the host book's own posted line — treat the edge as directional rather than precise.
Fair odds represent the price you'd see in a perfectly efficient, zero-margin market. To compute them we pull current prices from the available sportsbooks on the same market, strip out each book's vig, and average the resulting no-vig probabilities. The averaged probability for this outcome lands at 10.3%, which converts to fair odds of +871.
Compared to the offered price of +1000 (a +15.8% move from the original line), that produces an edge of +13.29%. In plain English: if the market is right about the true probability, you'd expect to gain about 13.3 cents on every dollar staked, on average, across many bets of this exact shape.
Across AiOddsLab's database, we've scored 350 graded MLB bets, 12.0% hit rate on settled tickets, average edge of +380.13%, average rating 48/100. That sample gives a baseline expectation for what a "fair" hit rate looks like in this sport — use it to sanity-check your own bankroll math.
Narrowing to the same market type, 110 graded sgp tickets, 0.0% hit rate on settled tickets, average edge of +52.03%, average rating 45/100. This is the closest apples-to-apples reference for the bet you're looking at.
Filtering by odds range alone (big dogs (+500 to +1500)), 116 graded tickets, 0.0% hit rate on settled tickets, average edge of +66.53%, average rating 47/100. Real-world hit rates have run cooler than the market implies — a reminder that priced-in probability is a ceiling, not a floor.
In the trailing 90 days, 350 graded MLB bets, 12.0% hit rate on settled tickets, average edge of +380.13%, average rating 48/100. Compare that to the all-time baseline above to see whether grading and outcomes have drifted recently.
Stats update as new tickets are analyzed and graded. Sample sizes below 5 are suppressed.
Why the market may be wrong
A +13.3% edge implies DraftKings is pricing this outcome more generously than the field. That can happen for a few reasons: the book is using a promotional lift to attract action, the line hasn't caught up to a recent move elsewhere, or it's a low-limit market the sharper books haven't shaped yet. None of these guarantee the bet hits — they only suggest the price is on your side relative to consensus.