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Grade D · Poor
About 0.0% worse than fair, or a stronger edge dragged down by weak market/safety/historical signals (rating 40/100).
You're paying more than the market thinks this is worth. Sit on it unless you have a strong read.
Edge vs devigged fair price
Compares to best alt book
Similar boosts performance
Higher = lower variance
Reddit sentiment (soft)
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"You're paying more than the market thinks this is worth. Sit on it unless you have a strong read."
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The numbers
Market comparison
Per-leg fair odds, then combined.
Legs
- 1.Omar Marmoush: 2+ remates
- 2.Mohamed Salah: 2+ remates
- 3.Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ remates
- 4.Omar Marmoush: 1+ remates a puerta
- 5.Mohamed Salah: 1+ remates a puerta
- 6.Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ remates a puerta
- 7.Ambos equipos recibirán una tarjeta
AI breakdown
Verdict: This 7-leg parlay, boosted to +900, appears speculative given the lack of comparative odds and the inherent multi-leg variance.
- Value: The absence of original odds or market consensus makes it impossible to assess the true value or edge of this boost.
- Market context: the matchup fair odds for each leg or the combined market consensus, we cannot compare the boosted +900 to alternative prices.
- Status: the matchup is no notable injury signal for the listed players.
- Social: the matchup data from Reddit.
- Risk: 7-leg parlay variance. With 7 independent conditions required, hit rate compounds quickly and one miss voids the ticket. No verifiable correlation signal from the inputs provided.
Smart insight: The requirements for multiple shots on target from three different players, alongside both teams receiving a card, create a complex outcome sensitive to individual player performance and match officiating. Similar profile: This is a multi-leg SGP combining player shots and cards, a market profile often subject to higher variance and price dependency on specific game flow. Counter-case: The high number of legs and the combination of player props with a team card prop introduce significant correlation risk that is difficult to quantify without individual leg pricing. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.
Recommendation: Pass