Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 3.1% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 2.6%, which converts to fair odds of +3801.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a F-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

Copa do Mundo 2026: Jogador - Chutes ao Gol — F Grade — Long Shot (Fun Only) (28/100)

Q: What does a -16.9% edge mean?

A negative edge of -16.9% means the price (+3143) is worse than fair value (+3801). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

All analyses

AiOddsLab

Bet365

Better Off PassingBalancedF

Price or risk doesn't justify it

Copa do Mundo 2026: Jogador - Chutes ao Gol

Not enough confirmed value to recommend — pass unless this is a small entertainment play.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.1u · Lottery

Long shot energy — small stake, big screenshot if it hits.

Your odds

+3143

Fair odds

+3801

Edge

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Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

How this bet was graded

Grade F · 28/100 · Better Off Passing

Copa do Mundo 2026: Jogador - Chutes ao Gol at +3143 on Bet365 (3 legs): we devig the available market on the same market to estimate a true win probability of 2.6% — fair odds +3801. The gap between +3143 and +3801 is the -16.87% edge: your long-run expected return per dollar if the market is right about true probability. At odds this long, even a strong edge cashes infrequently — variance dominates any short sample. Fair value here was derived from the host book's own line — treat the edge as directional, not precise.

Frequently asked questions

What does a -16.9% edge mean?

Across many identical wagers, you'd expect to lose about 16.9 cents on every dollar staked — the offered +3143 is worse than the consensus fair price (+3801). Any single ticket can still cash; the math just runs against you over time.

Does a positive edge mean this is likely to win?

No. The price still implies roughly a 3.1% chance the ticket cashes. +EV means the payout exceeds the true probability — most positive-EV longshots still lose individually. The edge only shows up across many similar bets.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an F-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.