What does a +19.5% edge mean?

A positive edge of +19.5% means the price (+110) pays more than the fair price (-132). Over many identical bets, that gap is your expected return per dollar staked.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 47.6% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 56.9%, which converts to fair odds of -132.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a A+-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

Canada to Qualify & Cyle Larin: 1+ Shots on Goal — A+ Grade — Strong +EV Play (77/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

Bet365

Lottery TicketBalancedA+

Longshot — fun stake only

Canada to Qualify & Cyle Larin: 1+ Shots on Goal

Too custom to grade against live odds. Treat the stake like a movie ticket.

Stake idea · Balanced

2u · Loud

Genuine value — comfortable going bigger here.

Your odds

+110

Fair odds

-132

Edge

—

Price bump+22%

Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This parlay offers an appealing price on the matchup qualification combined with a key player's offensive involvement.

Value: the matchup a direct market consensus is unavailable, your offer of +110 is a considerable price lift of 22.1% over the original price.
Market context: The value here comes from the lift on the original price, suggesting a sportsbook-specific offering rather than a market-wide trend.
Status: the matchup is no notable injury signal for either leg of this parlay.
Social: the matchup's insufficient public social data to draw conclusions.
Risk: This is a two-leg parlay, which inherently carries multi-leg variance.

Smart insight: Cyle the matchup offensive activity will be crucial for the matchup qualification, making his shot on goal prop a key driver for this parlay's success. Similar profile: This SGP combines a team the matchup market with a player-specific prop, often creating unique pricing dynamics. Counter-case: The biggest challenge for this bet is the inherent difficulty of predicting a team's qualification, which is a long-term outcome. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off for any unexpected changes.

Stake suggestion: the matchup stake.

How this bet was graded

Grade A+ · 77/100 · Lottery Ticket

Canada to Qualify & Cyle Larin: 1+ Shots on Goal at +110 on Bet365 (2 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+22.1%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. A+ (77/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an A+-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.