What does a -2.2% edge mean?

A negative edge of -2.2% means the price (+4670) is worse than fair value (+4777). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 2.1% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 2.1%, which converts to fair odds of +4777.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a F-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

Bet Builder (5 legs) — F Grade — Long Shot (Fun Only) (37/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

Bet365

Better Off PassingBalancedF

Price or risk doesn't justify it

Bet Builder (5 legs)

Not enough confirmed value to recommend — pass unless this is a small entertainment play.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.1u · Lottery

Long shot energy — small stake, big screenshot if it hits.

Your odds

+4670

Fair odds

+4777

Edge

—

Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This is a fun longshot parlay with some intriguing possibilities!

Value: The offered price of +4670 is a touch below the devigged an estimated fair price, giving it a slight negative EV of -2.19%.
Market context: Your price is a bit less favorable compared to the calculated fair odds.
Status: No notable injury signals for any of the teams involved.
Social: the matchup isn't enough public sentiment to get a read on this bet.
Risk: This is a 5-leg parlay, which inherently carries significant multi-leg parlay variance due to the number of outcomes involved in such a big price.

Smart insight: Colombia To Reach Quarter Finals and the two Quarter the matchup legs are the biggest price movers given they have the highest odds of the parlay's legs, making them key to the bet's overall payout sensitivity. Similar profile: Longshot multi-leg team advancement parlays in soccer often resolve below fair value due to the inherent uncertainty of knockout tournaments. Counter-case: The overall negative EV means that even with a big payout, this kind of parlay is typically a tougher beat over the long run because the offered price is lower than the true probability suggests. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off. Stake suggestion: the matchup stake.

How this bet was graded

Grade F · 37/100 · Better Off Passing

Bet Builder (5 legs) at +4670 on Bet365 (5 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. F (37/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an F-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.