Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 1.1% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 1.1%, which converts to fair odds of +8939.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a F-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

Algeria vs Austria — F Grade — Long Shot (Fun Only) (46/100)

Q: What does a -2.2% edge mean?

A negative edge of -2.2% means the price (+8740) is worse than fair value (+8939). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

All analyses

AiOddsLab

Bet365

Better Off PassingBalancedF

Price or risk doesn't justify it

Algeria vs Austria

Not enough confirmed value to recommend — pass unless this is a small entertainment play.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.1u · Lottery

Long shot energy — small stake, big screenshot if it hits.

Your odds

+8740

Fair odds

+8939

Edge

—

Settle the debate

One brand · 3 sizes

Save as image

Send link

Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This single moneyline bet on Algeria offers an interesting longshot opportunity!

Value: Your price of +8740 is slightly below the devigged fair odds of +8939, giving it a -2.20% negative EV.
Market context: the matchup no consensus or alternate book pricing available to compare to.
Status: No notable injury signals have been retrieved for this match.
Social: the matchup isn't enough social media buzz to draw a conclusion.
Risk: This is a single longshot moneyline bet where the price reflects a low win probability.

Smart insight: The outcome of the single leg, Algeria vs Austria, is the sole determinant of this bet's success, making the current price a direct reflection of its implied win probability. Similar profile: the matchup moneyline longshot bets in soccer often present high risk but can offer significant payouts when they hit. Counter-case: The statistical edge against you on this bet is the primary factor working against it. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off. Stake suggestion: the matchup.

How this bet was graded

Grade F · 46/100 · Better Off Passing

Algeria vs Austria at +8740 on Bet365: we devig the available market on the same market to estimate a true win probability of 1.1% — fair odds +8939. The gap between +8740 and +8939 is the -2.20% edge: your long-run expected return per dollar if the market is right about true probability. At odds this long, even a strong edge cashes infrequently — variance dominates any short sample. Fair value here was derived from the host book's own line — treat the edge as directional, not precise.

Frequently asked questions

What does a -2.2% edge mean?

Across many identical wagers, you'd expect to lose about 2.2 cents on every dollar staked — the offered +8740 is worse than the consensus fair price (+8939). Any single ticket can still cash; the math just runs against you over time.

Does a positive edge mean this is likely to win?

No. The price still implies roughly a 1.1% chance the ticket cashes. +EV means the payout exceeds the true probability — most positive-EV longshots still lose individually. The edge only shows up across many similar bets.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an F-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.