Ai
AiOddsLab
All analyses
Verdict: Lottery Ticket. Rating 61 out of 100. Grade F.
Ai
AiOddsLab
FanDuel
Lottery TicketF

Fun-stake only — variance is loud

7 leg parlay

Looks interesting but we can't confirm a price edge. Treat as a small entertainment play, not a serious wager.

Your odds
+23606858
Fair odds
+99900
Edge
—
Ai

Settle the debate

Save as image
Send link

AI breakdown

Verdict: This 7-leg MLB home run parlay offers a significant edge over fair odds.

  • Value: The offered price of +23606858 presents an astounding 23506.96% edge against the devigged fair odds of +99900.
  • Market context: The offered price is substantially higher than the fair odds, indicating extreme value for this specific combination.
  • Status: No notable injury signal for any player.
  • Social: the matchup public social data to form a sentiment.
  • Risk: This is a 7-leg parlay, inherently a longshot with high multi-leg parlay variance.

Smart insight: The value of this bet is overwhelmingly driven by the discrepancy between the offered price and the fair odds on a high-payout parlay. Similar profile: This is a long-shot, multi-leg parlay of player prop outcomes, typically characterized by high variance and low hit rates but with potential for massive payouts when priced inefficiently. Counter-case: The statistical improbability of seven individual home run props hitting in a single night is extremely high, despite the price advantage. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.

Recommendation: Small

How this bet was graded

Grade F · 61/100 · Lottery Ticket

We graded 7 leg parlay at +23606858 on FanDuel — a 7-leg ticket by comparing the offered price to a vig-free consensus of the wider market. The ticket centers on Rhys Hoskins, Taylor Ward, Christian Walker and others. The bet earned a F grade (61/100), which we label "Lottery Ticket".

The headline number is edge versus fair: +23506.96%. That figure is the long-run expected return per dollar staked, assuming the market consensus is an unbiased estimate of true probability. At odds this long, even a strongly positive edge cashes infrequently — single-bet variance dominates short samples. Because we couldn't fully match this market across other books, fair value here was derived from the host book's own posted line — treat the edge as directional rather than precise.

Fair odds calculation

Fair +99900 · Implied 0.1%

Fair odds represent the price you'd see in a perfectly efficient, zero-margin market. To compute them we pull current prices from the available sportsbooks on the same market, strip out each book's vig, and average the resulting no-vig probabilities. The averaged probability for this outcome lands at 0.1%, which converts to fair odds of +99900.

Compared to the offered price of +23606858 (a +0.0% move from the original line), that produces an edge of +23506.96%. In plain English: if the market is right about the true probability, you'd expect to gain about 23507.0 cents on every dollar staked, on average, across many bets of this exact shape.

Historical context

Longshots (+1500 and up) · MLB · parlay

Across AiOddsLab's database, we've scored 338 graded MLB bets, 12.0% hit rate on settled tickets, average edge of +393.48%, average rating 47/100. That sample gives a baseline expectation for what a "fair" hit rate looks like in this sport — use it to sanity-check your own bankroll math.

Narrowing to the same market type, 180 graded parlay tickets, 0.0% hit rate on settled tickets, average edge of +707.30%, average rating 48/100. This is the closest apples-to-apples reference for the bet you're looking at.

Filtering by odds range alone (longshots (+1500 and up)), 146 graded tickets, 0.0% hit rate on settled tickets, average edge of +29.11%, average rating 45/100.

In the trailing 90 days, 338 graded MLB bets, 12.0% hit rate on settled tickets, average edge of +393.48%, average rating 47/100. Compare that to the all-time baseline above to see whether grading and outcomes have drifted recently.

Stats update as new tickets are analyzed and graded. Sample sizes below 5 are suppressed.

Why the market may be wrong

A +23507.0% edge implies FanDuel is pricing this outcome more generously than the field. That can happen for a few reasons: the book is using a promotional lift to attract action, the line hasn't caught up to a recent move elsewhere, or it's a low-limit market the sharper books haven't shaped yet. None of these guarantee the bet hits — they only suggest the price is on your side relative to consensus.

Frequently asked questions

What does a +23507.0% edge mean?

Edge measures the gap between the price you're getting (+23606858) and the fair price implied by the broader market (+99900). A positive edge of +23507.0% means the offered price is paying more than the market thinks the outcome is worth. Over a long run of identical situations, that gap is your expected return per dollar wagered — though variance on any single bet is large.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. Edge and win probability are different things. The market still implies roughly a 0.0% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet is one that pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually. The edge only shows up across many similar wagers.

How are fair odds calculated?

Fair odds are derived by taking sportsbook prices on the same market, removing the bookmaker's vig (the built-in margin), and averaging the resulting no-vig probabilities. For this bet we used the available market price to estimate a true win probability of 0.1%, which converts to fair odds of +99900. The offered price of +23606858 is then compared against that fair line to compute edge.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Sportsbooks usually advertise the percentage lift over their own original price, which they set with house margin built in. Our grade compares the offered price to a vig-free market consensus, so a "+50%" advertised lift can still grade poorly if the original line was already inflated, and a small lift can grade well if it pushes a fair price into +EV territory.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even an F-grade bet can lose, and you should size stakes within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and consider your own information about the matchup. This tool helps you avoid bad prices — it doesn't replace judgment or responsible bankroll management.