What does a -16.9% edge mean?

A negative edge of -16.9% means the price (+1400) is worse than fair value (+1705). You can still win, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 6.7% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 5.5%, which converts to fair odds of +1705.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a F-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

5 Pick Parlay: Josh Downs 70+ Rec Yds, Jonathan Taylor 80+ Rush Yds, Tyler Warren 50+ Rec Yds, Jacory Croskey-Merritt 60+ Rush Yds, Stefon Diggs 50+ Rec Yds — F Grade — Long Shot (Fun Only) (22/100)

All analyses

AiOddsLab

DraftKings

Better Off PassingBalancedF

Price or risk doesn't justify it

5 Pick Parlay: Josh Downs 70+ Rec Yds, Jonathan Taylor 80+ Rush Yds, Tyler Warren 50+ Rec Yds, Jacory Croskey-Merritt 60+ Rush Yds, Stefon Diggs 50+ Rec Yds

Bet builders price correlation as the book's profit, not yours. Without a fair number to anchor, this is a feel play, not a value one.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.1u · Lottery

Long shot energy — small stake, big screenshot if it hits.

Your odds

+1400

Fair odds

+1705

Edge

—

Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

How this bet was graded

Grade F · 22/100 · Better Off Passing

5 Pick Parlay: Josh Downs 70+ Rec Yds, Jonathan Taylor 80+ Rush Yds, Tyler Warren 50+ Rec Yds, Jacory Croskey-Merritt 60+ Rush Yds, Stefon Diggs 50+ Rec Yds at +1400 on DraftKings (5 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.

Frequently asked questions

Why isn't an edge % shown?

We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.

Does the grade still mean something?

Yes. F (22/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an F-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.