Longshot — fun stake only
No market exists to compare this against, so the "edge" is a vibe. Fun stake if you love the angle.
Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.
Verdict: This five-leg parlay is a high-variance longshot with a significant mathematical edge.
Smart insight: The EV of this bet is most sensitive to the true probabilities of each player hitting a home run. Similar profile: This is a 5-leg SGP parlay focused on individual player home run props, a category often presenting long odds and high volatility. Counter-case: The extreme unlikelihood of all five independent home run events occurring simultaneously represents significant multi-leg parlay variance. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.
Recommendation: Pass
Grade C · 61/100 · Lottery Ticket
5 leg Parlay at +198661 on FanDuel (5 legs): we couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy consensus fair value, so no edge % is shown — anything we'd print would just echo the book's own vig. The grade leans on price lift vs the original (+0.0%), leg count, and variance. Treat it as directional.
We couldn't match this slip to enough comparable market prices to compute a trustworthy fair value. Rather than show a number derived from the offered price itself (which would just echo the book's vig), we leave the edge unstated. The grade still reflects price lift vs the original, variance, and confidence.
Yes. C (61/100) is built from the price lift, leg count, variance, and any verified context signals — it's directional. Treat it as a sanity check, not a precise EV figure.
Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an C-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.