4 Pick Parlay
Grade D · Poor
About 0.0% worse than fair, or a stronger edge dragged down by weak market/safety/historical signals (rating 40/100).
You're paying more than the market thinks this is worth. Sit on it unless you have a strong read.
Edge vs devigged fair price
Compares to best alt book
Similar boosts performance
Higher = lower variance
Reddit sentiment (soft)
4 Pick Parlay
"You're paying more than the market thinks this is worth. Sit on it unless you have a strong read."
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The numbers
Market comparison
Per-leg fair odds, then combined.
Legs
- 1.Iran Moneyline
- 2.Mehdi Taremi Anytime Goalscorer
- 3.Mehdi Ghayedi 1+ Shots on Target
- 4.Iran Over 1.5 Team Total Goals
AI breakdown
Verdict: This four-leg parlay at +575 presents an unknown value proposition without original or fair odds.
- Value: The value cannot be determined as original odds, fair odds, and expected value are all unavailable.
- Market context: No comparative data is available for individual legs or the combined parlay across other books or consensus.
- Status: the matchup is no notable injury signal.
- Social: Reddit pulse is insufficient for analysis.
- Risk: 4-leg parlay variance. With 4 independent conditions required, hit rate compounds quickly and one miss voids the ticket. No verifiable correlation signal from the inputs provided.
Smart insight: The correlation between Iran winning, Mehdi Taremi scoring, and Iran exceeding 1.5 team goals could be quite strong if Iran performs well. Similar profile: This is a multi-leg team and player prop parlay in soccer, which often has high variance due to the interconnectedness of outcomes. Counter-case: the matchup knowing the individual leg probabilities or the overall fair value, the boosted price could be masking a highly unfavorable bet. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.
Recommendation: Pass