Ai
AiOddsLab
All analyses
Verdict: Better Off Passing. Rating 42 out of 100. Grade F.
Ai
AiOddsLab
FanDuel
Better Off PassingF

Price or risk doesn't justify it

4 leg Same Game Parlay+

Not enough confirmed value to recommend — skip unless this is a tiny entertainment play.

Your odds
+15036
Fair odds
+15377
Edge
—
Ai

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AI breakdown

Verdict: This four-leg home run parlay offers slightly negative expected value despite the boost.

  • Value: The boosted odds of +15036 are marginally worse than the fair odds of +15377, representing a -2.20% edge.
  • Market context: The boosted price is slightly lower than the estimated fair odds, indicating no real market edge.
  • Status: No notable injury signal.
  • Social: the matchup public social data for analysis.
  • Risk: This is a four-leg parlay of longshot props, leading to extreme multi-leg parlay variance.

Smart insight: The probability of each individual home run prop is key, as the cumulative improbability drives the long odds and makes this parlay highly sensitive to any mispricing of the legs. Similar profile: This is a multi-leg "the matchup Home Run" parlay, a category known for high variance and often offering little to no edge against fair odds. Counter-case: The extreme unlikelihood of all four specific players hitting a home run in the same game presents a significant hurdle for this bet. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.

Recommendation: Pass.

How this bet was graded

Grade F · 42/100 · Better Off Passing

We graded 4 leg Same Game Parlay+ at +15036 on FanDuel — a 4-leg ticket by comparing the offered price to a vig-free consensus of the wider market. The ticket centers on Shohei Ohtani, Byron Buxton, Nick Kurtz and others. The bet earned a F grade (42/100), which we label "Better Off Passing".

The headline number is edge versus fair: -2.20%. That figure is the long-run expected return per dollar staked, assuming the market consensus is an unbiased estimate of true probability. At odds this long, even a strongly positive edge cashes infrequently — single-bet variance dominates short samples. Because we couldn't fully match this market across other books, fair value here was derived from the host book's own posted line — treat the edge as directional rather than precise.

Fair odds calculation

Fair +15377 · Implied 0.6%

Fair odds represent the price you'd see in a perfectly efficient, zero-margin market. To compute them we pull current prices from the available sportsbooks on the same market, strip out each book's vig, and average the resulting no-vig probabilities. The averaged probability for this outcome lands at 0.6%, which converts to fair odds of +15377.

Compared to the offered price of +15036 (a +0.0% move from the original line), that produces an edge of -2.20%. In plain English: if the market is right about the true probability, you'd expect to lose about 2.2 cents on every dollar staked, on average, across many bets of this exact shape.

Historical context

Longshots (+1500 and up) · parlay

Narrowing to the same market type, 436 graded parlay tickets, average edge of +223.59%, average rating 46/100. This is the closest apples-to-apples reference for the bet you're looking at.

Filtering by odds range alone (longshots (+1500 and up)), 292 graded tickets, average edge of +80.33%, average rating 47/100.

Stats update as new tickets are analyzed and graded. Sample sizes below 5 are suppressed.

Why the market disagrees

The wider market is pricing this outcome tighter than FanDuel's line suggests is reasonable. With an edge of -2.2%, you're paying a premium versus the consensus fair price of +15377. The bet can still win — odds are not destiny — but the price embeds a built-in disadvantage that compounds across repeated wagers. Shopping the same market at a sharper book, or waiting for the line to move, is usually the correct response.

Frequently asked questions

What does a -2.2% edge mean?

Edge measures the gap between the price you're getting (+15036) and the fair price implied by the broader market (+15377). A negative edge of -2.2% means the price is worse than fair value. You can still win the bet, but the long-run math is against you.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. Edge and win probability are different things. The market still implies roughly a 0.7% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet is one that pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually. The edge only shows up across many similar wagers.

How are fair odds calculated?

Fair odds are derived by taking sportsbook prices on the same market, removing the bookmaker's vig (the built-in margin), and averaging the resulting no-vig probabilities. For this bet we used the available market price to estimate a true win probability of 0.6%, which converts to fair odds of +15377. The offered price of +15036 is then compared against that fair line to compute edge.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Sportsbooks usually advertise the percentage lift over their own original price, which they set with house margin built in. Our grade compares the offered price to a vig-free market consensus, so a "+50%" advertised lift can still grade poorly if the original line was already inflated, and a small lift can grade well if it pushes a fair price into +EV territory.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even an F-grade bet can lose, and you should size stakes within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and consider your own information about the matchup. This tool helps you avoid bad prices — it doesn't replace judgment or responsible bankroll management.