4 leg parlay
Grade C · Fair
Priced near the devigged market and the supporting signals are mixed (rating 55/100). Roughly a coin flip on value.
Priced noticeably better than the market average. Reasonable spot if you already liked this side.
Edge vs devigged fair price
Compares to best alt book
Similar boosts performance
Higher = lower variance
Reddit sentiment (soft)
4 leg parlay
"Priced noticeably better than the market average. Reasonable spot if you already liked this side."
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The numbers
Market comparison
Per-leg fair odds, then combined.
Player status
From ESPN injury feed.
- ACTIVEBryce Harper · Philadelphia Phillies
- ACTIVEMichael Busch · Chicago Cubs
- ACTIVENick Kurtz · Athletics
Legs
- 1.Bryce Harper To Hit A Home Run
- 2.Michael Busch To Hit A Home Run
- 3.Riley Greene To Hit A Home Run
- 4.Nick Kurtz To Hit A Home Run
AI breakdown
Verdict: This 4-leg home run parlay is boosted significantly above fair value.
- Value: The boosted odds of +37285 offer a substantial 17.30% edge over the devigged fair odds of +31771.
- Market context: The boost provides a nearly 20% improvement over the original odds, making it attractive compared to the theoretical true probability.
- Status: Bryce Harper, Michael Busch, and Nick Kurtz are all active.
- Social: the matchup data to assess social sentiment.
- Risk: This is a 4-leg parlay consisting entirely of home run props, which inherently carries high multi-leg parlay variance.
Smart insight: The EV of this bet is highly sensitive to the individual probabilities of each player hitting a home run. Similar profile: This is a multi-leg longshot parlay focusing on individual player achievements, which frequently show significant discrepancy between boosted and fair odds. Counter-case: The extreme rarity of all four players hitting a home run in the same game, even with a boost, means this is still a very longshot bet. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.
Recommendation: Small