Ai
AiOddsLab
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Verdict: Lottery Ticket. Rating 74 out of 100. Grade C.
Ai
AiOddsLab
FanDuel
Lottery TicketC

Fun-stake only — variance is loud

4 leg parlay

Looks interesting but we can't confirm a price edge. Treat as a small entertainment play, not a serious wager.

Your odds
+24547
Fair odds
+16734
Edge
—
Price bump+50%
Ai

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AI breakdown

Verdict: This quadruple home run parlay offers significant theoretical value due to the boosted odds.

  • Value: The boosted odds of +24547 present a substantial 46.41% edge against the devigged fair odds of +16734, indicating strong positive expected value.
  • Market context: The boost increases the payout by 49.7% from the original odds, offering a large premium over the calculated fair price.
  • Status: the matchup is no notable injury signal for any of the players involved.
  • Social: the matchup social media data was retrieved for this boost.
  • Risk: This is a 4-leg parlay, inherently carrying high multi-leg parlay variance amplified by the longshot nature of each "To Hit A Home Run" prop.

Smart insight: The value of this bet is highly sensitive to the true individual probabilities of Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, and Pete Alonso hitting a home run. Similar profile: This is a multi-leg "To Hit A Home Run" parlay, a category often presenting longshot payouts but with rare hit rates against fair value. Counter-case: The primary risk is the extremely low individual probability of each player hitting a home run, compounded across four legs. Live context: the matchup lineups near tip-off.

Recommendation: Small

How this bet was graded

Grade C · 74/100 · Lottery Ticket

We graded 4 leg parlay at +24547 on FanDuel — a 4-leg ticket by comparing the offered price to a vig-free consensus of the wider market. The ticket centers on Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras and others. The bet earned a C grade (74/100), which we label "Lottery Ticket".

The headline number is edge versus fair: +46.41%. That figure is the long-run expected return per dollar staked, assuming the market consensus is an unbiased estimate of true probability. At odds this long, even a strongly positive edge cashes infrequently — single-bet variance dominates short samples. Situational adjustments applied: Public/Sharp split (-1). Because we couldn't fully match this market across other books, fair value here was derived from the host book's pre-boost line — treat the edge as directional rather than precise.

Fair odds calculation

Fair +16734 · Implied 0.6%

Fair odds represent the price you'd see in a perfectly efficient, zero-margin market. To compute them we pull current prices from the available sportsbooks on the same market, strip out each book's vig, and average the resulting no-vig probabilities. The averaged probability for this outcome lands at 0.6%, which converts to fair odds of +16734.

Compared to the boosted price of +24547 (a +49.7% move from the original line), that produces an edge of +46.41%. In plain English: if the market is right about the true probability, you'd expect to gain about 46.4 cents on every dollar staked, on average, across many bets of this exact shape.

Historical context

Longshots (+1500 and up) · MLB · parlay

Across AiOddsLab's database, we've scored 335 graded MLB bets, 13.0% hit rate on settled tickets, average edge of +326.55%, average rating 47/100. That sample gives a baseline expectation for what a "fair" hit rate looks like in this sport — use it to sanity-check your own bankroll math.

Narrowing to the same market type, 177 graded parlay tickets, 0.0% hit rate on settled tickets, average edge of +585.93%, average rating 48/100. This is the closest apples-to-apples reference for the bet you're looking at.

Filtering by odds range alone (longshots (+1500 and up)), 144 graded tickets, 0.0% hit rate on settled tickets, average edge of +28.84%, average rating 45/100.

In the trailing 90 days, 335 graded MLB bets, 13.0% hit rate on settled tickets, average edge of +326.55%, average rating 47/100. Compare that to the all-time baseline above to see whether grading and outcomes have drifted recently.

Stats update as new tickets are analyzed and graded. Sample sizes below 5 are suppressed.

Why the market may be wrong

A +46.4% edge implies FanDuel is pricing this outcome more generously than the field. That can happen for a few reasons: the book is using a promotional lift to attract action, the line hasn't caught up to a recent move elsewhere, or it's a low-limit market the sharper books haven't shaped yet. None of these guarantee the bet hits — they only suggest the price is on your side relative to consensus.

Frequently asked questions

What does a +46.4% edge mean?

Edge measures the gap between the price you're getting (+24547) and the fair price implied by the broader market (+16734). A positive edge of +46.4% means the boost is paying more than the market thinks the outcome is worth. Over a long run of identical situations, that gap is your expected return per dollar wagered — though variance on any single bet is large.

Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. Edge and win probability are different things. The market still implies roughly a 0.4% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet is one that pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually. The edge only shows up across many similar wagers.

How are fair odds calculated?

Fair odds are derived by taking sportsbook prices on the same market, removing the bookmaker's vig (the built-in margin), and averaging the resulting no-vig probabilities. For this bet we used the available market price to estimate a true win probability of 0.6%, which converts to fair odds of +16734. The boosted price of +24547 is then compared against that fair line to compute edge.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Sportsbooks usually advertise the percentage lift over their own original price, which they set with house margin built in. Our grade compares the boosted price to a vig-free market consensus, so a "+50%" advertised lift can still grade poorly if the original line was already inflated, and a small lift can grade well if it pushes a fair price into +EV territory.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even an C-grade bet can lose, and you should size stakes within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and consider your own information about the matchup. This tool helps you avoid bad prices — it doesn't replace judgment or responsible bankroll management.