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FProbably skip· Sportsbook Special

15+ Point Party

Grade F · Avoid

Heavily overpriced and/or weak across the board — rating 22/100 with 11.0% off fair. Sportsbook special.

Looks shiny, prices like a tax. The book is the one celebrating this one.

Sportsbook Special Vegas Thanks You 4-Leg Stack
Value
0

Edge vs devigged fair price

Market
64

Compares to best alt book

Historical
44

Similar boosts performance

Safety
0

Higher = lower variance

Social
49

Reddit sentiment (soft)

Ai
AiOddsLabVerdict
Bet365
22/100
PROBABLY SKIPSportsbook Special

15+ Point Party

"Looks shiny, prices like a tax. The book is the one celebrating this one."

Your Odds
+1400
Edge
-11.0%
Price Bump
+7%
AiOddsLab.com
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Settle the debate — AiOddsLab graded "15+ Point Party" (Bet365) 22/100. Looks like a sportsbook special. Would you still tail it? https://aioddslab.com/analyzer/15-point-party-y65vau

The numbers

Boosted odds+1400
Original odds+1300
Market consensus+1300
Devigged fair+1585
Implied probability6.7%
Fair probability5.9%
Boost % gained+7.1%
Expected ROI-10.98%
Edge vs fair-10.98%

Market comparison

Per-leg fair odds, then combined.

Partial: 0/4 legs matched
Some legs lacked competitor prices. Edge calculated against the hosting book's original parlay price, not a full multi-book consensus.
SGP correlation markdown · −15%
SGP correlation: 4 overlapping positive legs (same game). Fair probability marked down 15%.
Leg 1unmatched
Karl-Anthony Towns: 15+ Points
Leg 2unmatched
Stephon Castle: 15+ Points
Leg 3unmatched
De'Aaron Fox: 15+ Points
Leg 4unmatched
Mikal Bridges: 15+ Points
Bet365 (boosted)+1400
Combined consensus+1300
Combined fair (devigged)+1585

Player status

From ESPN injury feed.

  • ACTIVE
    Karl-Anthony Towns
  • ACTIVE
    Stephon Castle
  • ACTIVE
    De'Aaron Fox
  • ACTIVE
    Mikal Bridges

Legs

  • 1.Karl-Anthony Towns: 15+ Points
  • 2.Stephon Castle: 15+ Points
  • 3.De'Aaron Fox: 15+ Points
  • 4.Mikal Bridges: 15+ Points

AI breakdown

Verdict: This boost offers negative expected value and should be avoided.

  • Value: The boosted odds of +1400 are significantly lower than the calculated devigged fair odds of +1585, indicating a negative edge of -10.98%.
  • Market context: The boost presents worse odds than what the market implies as fair value.
  • Status: Karl-Anthony Towns, Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, and Mikal Bridges are all active.
  • Risk: This is a 4-leg parlay, inherently carrying high multi-leg parlay variance.
  • Recommendation: Pass.